What should be done about the Electoral College?

A study of projected electoral college results in 2020 based on 2018 Congressional results indicated a Democratic victory in the electoral college with 289-324 Democratic votes and 249-214 Republican votes. The actual vote will be 306-232, almost identical to the 2016 result, except in the opposite sense.

That sounds good for Democrats, but a closer look at the daily variations as the last 2018 votes are counted and recounted is disturbing - very small variations in popular votes create very large changes in the electoral vote. Technically speaking, it's an unstable algorithm. Clinton would have won in 2016 if the right 40000 votes had switched from Trump to her, 22600 in Pennsylvania for 20 electoral votes, 5400 in Michigan for 16 electoral votes, 11400 in Wisconsin for 10 electoral votes. Biden won in 2020 with very similar margins in the same states and a few others.

The final electoral vote tally 306-232 doesn't reflect that closeness very well, nor the lopsided popular vote. Is that really the best we can do?

There are lots of ideas here and and here.

George Will explains how the Electoral College was intended to protect political minorities by insuring that presidents have to gain support across the whole country.

After all, the essence of democracy is observing that minorities have rights and protecting them; simple majority rule is the essence of the mob, which the Founders rightly feared based on ancient and recent precedents.

Will observes that the winner-take-all outcome prescribed in 48 of the 50 states is a critical part of the method even though it's not in the Federal Constitution or any Federal statute. This is the basis for our two-party system which has mostly provided an uncommon degree of political stability compared to most other countries. The necessity of gaining broad national majorities tends to push the parties toward the center, but this tendency has become undone in recent years by dark big money in politics and single-issue narrow-casting media.

Popular election of the president is popular in some circles, starting with James Madison. But while popular wisdom generally gets things right eventually, it can be fooled in the short run. And think about the task of recounting a very close national popular election, an enormous labor if we go back to paper ballots, or an enormous opportunity for fiddling the results if we don't. Just look at the mischief contesting the 2020 presidential election while carefully NOT contesting the down-ballot results. What if some secretaries of state refuse to recount? This recount task is increased if ranked-choice voting were adopted, which would otherwise be a big improvement.

So let's consider some ideas that might be better than the current electoral college and might be more stable than direct election.

These ideas can be implemented by state or Federal statutes -

• Use the Maine/Nebraska method of allocating electoral votes rather than winner-take-all. This could be accomplished entirely at the state level. The Maine/Nebraska method elects one elector according to the results in each congressional district, and elects two electors according to the results for the whole state at large.

  How this would have affected -

  
  2016 as reported - D 232 R 306 2016 by Maine - D 250 R 288
  
  2020 as projected - D 324 R 214 2020 as projected by Maine
  - D 285 R 253
  
  

  The ultimate result is the same, but the spread in votes is closer to the popular vote.
• Allocate fractional votes to each district to avoid at-large - in a state with N congressional districts, each district gets 1+2/N electoral votes - so state totals per candidate might not be whole numbers. Assumes Congress would accept fractional votes.
• To avoid fractional votes, add up a candidate's fractional district votes and discard the fractional parts of the sum ; if there are any discarded fractional parts, they will add up to 1. If so, decide the 1 vote by the at-large winner. No need to get Congress to deal with fractions.
• Instead of voting by districts, consider the statewide vote. Each candidate gets a proportionate number of the state's total vote, rounded down to a whole number. The resulting deficit votes (might be more than 1 if there are lots of third parties) is decided by the at-large winner.

Constitutional amendments are almost impossible.

• Get rid of the physical electors. There is no reason to have a bunch of party hacks gather in state capitols on a given date since they have no free will - as established by the RNC last time. Nothing changes as far as the results. The secretaries of state report the final results to Congress anyway.
• Get rid of the two extra votes. Each state has electoral votes equal to number of House representatives. There is plenty of rural bias in the Congress because all states get one representative regardless of population. No need to perpetuate additional rural bias originally inserted to favor slave states.

  How this would have affected -

  
  2016 as reported - D 232 R 306 2016 no at large -     D
  190 R 246
  
  2020 as projected - D 324 R 214 2020 no at large -     D
  270 R 166
  
  

  The ultimate result is unchanged, but the margins better reflect the popular vote.
• Eliminate by-state voting in the House. Currently if no candidate gets a majority of electoral votes, the decision goes to the House which decides by voting by state delegations.

  That is to say, if a state has 10 representatives, then it casts 1 vote for president. That vote is determined within the state delegation; if it follows partisan lines, the majority party in that delegation determines the vote; if the delegation is evenly split, it doesn't get a vote. This might be more important if states abandon winner-take-all and so electoral votes might be closer and third parties might be more likely to prevent a majority. So this is important to fix because it's an overwhelming rural bias. Note DC doesn't participate in the House. Compare electoral votes to state delegations (third column is tied delegations)

  
  2016 electoral - D 232 R 306 ; D 14 R 32 T 3
  
  2020 projected - D 324 R 214 ; D 20 R 26 T 4
  
  

• Just replace the electoral college with the House. Let each new House, in January of odd years, elect the president by simple majority and ranked-choice voting; let the new president nominate a vice-president for confirmation by House and Senate. There would still be party conventions and presidential nominees and campaigns, and House candidates might make promises about how they'd vote.
• And go one step further and allow the House to nominate a new president at any time by a 2/3 vote subject to veto in the Senate by majority vote within 72 hours. The difficulties surrounding impeachment and 25th amendment are replaced by the somewhat simpler problem of getting a 2/3 vote in the House; that's hard enough that it will be more of a threat than a routine occurrence. It's a way of getting rid of an incompetent president, without a specific finding of criminality or mental defect, and without automatically promoting a vice-president who might be no better. It could be called the Trump clause.

  Other reform ideas

  Before too much presidential power is bestowed on the House, it should become worthy of the honor, by mandating ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, as advocated by Fairvote and eliminating gerrymandering and unlimited dark money

  The NY Times explores some of these ideas - multi-member and increasing the size of the House

  Expanding the House reduces rural bias and might diversify the overall expertise. But there's no point without rules changes that empower members and disempower the leadership.

  And while we are at it, how about biennial approve-or-expel votes for presidents and senators - it's a good way to increase voter participation in midterms, too.

  More

  • Electoral College
  • Ranked-choice voting
  • Some Contitutional amendments

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