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One way to project the 2020 electoral vote is to add up the Democratic and Republican votes in the 2018 House races from
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-${statename}-elections.html
and use that as a
proxy for the popular vote and award electoral
votes on that basis for each state - except Maine
and Nebraska, which are a bit more complicated.
And don't forget DC, whose three electoral votes
always go Democratic.
It's not an exact projection, because voters don't always vote for both President and for Congressional Representative - votes for President count in 2020 but votes for Congressional Representative are what we got in 2018.
Some districts require special treatment because they can't be used to reliably project presidential vote. For instance, uncontested candidates, multiple candidates from the same party, candidates running as independent, and districts where third party and independent votes are more numerous than the difference between the Democratic and Republican votes. There were 18 uncontested elections and 33 other special case districts in 2018. Several approaches are possible:
Finally, not all the votes are counted yet and there could be some adjustments which are likely to affect the individual House races but less likely to affect the projected electoral outcome. There's always the chance of programming bugs.
To validate the methodology, applying it to 2016 data produced a projected 2016 electoral vote of D 233, R 305. The actual 2016 electoral vote was 232 for Clinton, and 304 or 306 for Trump, depending on how you count the two Republican Electors that declined to vote for him. So that's pretty close - maybe closer than it deserves, because in 48 states and DC, very small differences in popular vote swing all a state's electoral votes one way or another.
The projected electoral college results as of 30 Dec 2018, according to the treatments of the special case districts, are
The states and electoral votes that flipped from 2016 were Arizona - 11, Florida - 29, Iowa - 6, Michigan - 16, Pennsylvania - 20, and Wisconsin - 10. Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each had one special case district. Florida had five. A detailed log of raw data and tallies by state follows below.
Of course the actual 2020 electoral vote might have something to do with what Trump does between now and then, and with who the Democrats nominate, but it will have a lot more to do with the timing of the next, long overdue, recession, and whether we stumble into any more endless wars. But the projection is encouraging.
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2018 election data from nytimes.com as of 30 Dec 2018. 2016 election data from dailykos.com. Final House results are also available here.
Understanding the log: Alabama 6 85337 192227 0 A contested district, 2018 Democratic and Republican vote Alabama 7 204586 83915 0 An uncontested district, 2016 Democratic and Republican presidential vote Alabama state pop 695765 1056844 dist 1 6 ev 0 9 margin 40119 State total popular vote sum, Democratic and Republican, district count going Democratic and Republican electoral vote allocation Democratic and Republican margin defined as difference between Democratic and Republican, divided by the number or electoral votes DC national pop 57583972 51316870 ev 324 214 delegations 21 26 4 states 51 districts 436 National total popular vote sum, Democratic and Republican, electoral vote allocation Democratic and Republican house state delegations log with Substituted results for special case districts: Alabama 1 89226 153228 0 Alabama 2 86931 138879 0 Alabama 3 83996 147770 0 Alabama 4 46492 184255 0 Alabama 5 101388 159063 0 Alabama 6 85644 192542 0 Alabama 7 204586 83915 0 Alabama state pop 698263 1059652 dist 1 6 ev 0 9 margin 40154 Alabama national pop 698263 1059652 ev 0 9 delegations 0 1 0 states 1 districts 7 Alaska 1 131199 149779 131199 Alaska state pop 131199 149779 dist 0 1 ev 0 3 margin 6193 Alaska national pop 829462 1209431 ev 0 12 delegations 0 2 0 states 2 districts 8 Arizona 1 143240 122784 0 Arizona 2 161000 133083 0 Arizona 3 114650 64868 0 Arizona 4 84521 188842 3672 Arizona 5 127027 186037 0 Arizona 6 140559 173140 0 Arizona 7 113044 18706 18706 Arizona 8 135569 168835 0 Arizona 9 159583 101662 0 Arizona state pop 1179193 1157957 dist 5 4 ev 11 0 margin 1930 Arizona national pop 2008655 2367388 ev 11 12 delegations 1 2 0 states 3 districts 17 Arkansas 1 57907 138757 4581 Arkansas 2 116135 132125 5193 Arkansas 3 74952 148717 5899 Arkansas 4 63984 136740 3952 Arkansas state pop 312978 556339 dist 0 4 ev 0 6 margin 40560 Arkansas national pop 2321633 2923727 ev 11 18 delegations 1 3 0 states 4 districts 21 California 1 131548 160046 0 California 2 243081 72576 0 California 3 134875 97376 0 California 4 156253 184401 0 California 5 205860 55158 55158 California 6 162411 39528 39528 California 7 155016 126601 0 California 8 68370 102415 68370 California 9 113414 87349 0 California 10 115945 105955 0 California 11 204369 71312 0 California 12 275292 41780 0 California 13 260580 34257 34257 California 14 211384 55439 0 California 15 177989 65940 0 California 16 82266 60693 0 California 17 159105 52057 0 California 18 225142 77096 0 California 19 162496 57823 0 California 20 183677 42044 42044 California 21 57239 56377 0 California 22 105136 117243 0 California 23 74661 131113 0 California 24 166550 117881 0 California 25 133209 111813 0 California 26 158216 97210 0 California 27 160504 42132 42132 California 28 196662 54272 0 California 29 124697 29995 0 California 30 191573 69420 0 California 31 110143 77352 0 California 32 121759 55272 0 California 33 219091 93769 0 California 34 110195 41711 41711 California 35 103420 45604 0 California 36 122169 84839 0 California 37 210555 25823 0 California 38 139188 62968 0 California 39 126002 118391 0 California 40 93938 27511 27511 California 41 108227 58021 0 California 42 100892 131040 0 California 43 152272 43780 0 California 44 97944 45378 45378 California 45 158906 146383 0 California 46 102278 45638 0 California 47 143354 77682 0 California 48 157837 136899 0 California 49 166453 128577 0 California 50 125448 134362 0 California 51 109527 44301 0 California 52 188992 107015 0 California 53 185667 83127 0 California state pop 7951777 4232745 dist 46 7 ev 55 0 margin 67618 California national pop 10273410 7156472 ev 66 18 delegations 2 3 0 states 5 districts 74 Colorado 1 272886 85207 11600 Colorado 2 259608 144901 26105 Colorado 3 146426 173205 16558 Colorado 4 145544 224038 0 Colorado 5 126848 184002 11795 Colorado 6 187639 148685 10493 Colorado 7 204260 119734 14012 Colorado state pop 1343211 1079772 dist 4 3 ev 9 0 margin 29271 Colorado national pop 11616621 8236244 ev 75 18 delegations 3 3 0 states 6 districts 81 Connecticut 1 173271 95924 3015 Connecticut 2 178896 102326 6894 Connecticut 3 173424 95702 0 Connecticut 4 165718 106325 0 Connecticut 5 149852 118524 0 Connecticut state pop 841161 518801 dist 5 0 ev 7 0 margin 46051 Connecticut national pop 12457782 8755045 ev 82 18 delegations 4 3 0 states 7 districts 86 Delaware 1 227353 125384 0 Delaware state pop 227353 125384 dist 1 0 ev 3 0 margin 33989 Delaware national pop 12685135 8880429 ev 85 18 delegations 5 3 0 states 8 districts 87 Florida 1 106199 216189 0 Florida 2 96233 199335 0 Florida 3 129880 176616 0 Florida 4 123351 248420 9476 Florida 5 180527 89799 0 Florida 6 145758 187891 0 Florida 7 183113 134285 0 Florida 8 142415 218112 0 Florida 9 172172 124565 0 Florida 10 194934 110062 0 Florida 11 128053 239395 0 Florida 12 132844 194564 7510 Florida 13 182717 134254 0 Florida 14 188870 128797 0 Florida 15 134132 151380 0 Florida 16 164463 197483 0 Florida 17 117194 193326 0 Florida 18 156454 185905 0 Florida 19 128106 211465 0 Florida 20 231596 52251 0 Florida 21 206239 137490 0 Florida 22 184634 113049 0 Florida 23 161611 99446 15309 Florida 24 219783 40817 0 Florida 25 84173 128672 0 Florida 26 119797 115678 0 Florida 27 130743 115588 6255 Florida state pop 4145991 4144834 dist 13 14 ev 29 0 margin 39 Florida national pop 16831126 13025263 ev 114 18 delegations 5 4 0 states 9 districts 114 Georgia 1 105942 144741 0 Georgia 2 136699 92472 0 Georgia 3 101010 191996 0 Georgia 4 227717 61092 0 Georgia 5 259805 36385 0 Georgia 6 160139 156875 0 Georgia 7 140011 140430 0 Georgia 8 91360 168193 0 Georgia 9 57912 224661 0 Georgia 10 112339 190396 0 Georgia 11 118653 191887 0 Georgia 12 101503 148986 0 Georgia 13 223157 69760 0 Georgia 14 53981 175743 0 Georgia state pop 1890228 1993617 dist 5 9 ev 0 16 margin 6461 Georgia national pop 18721354 15018880 ev 114 34 delegations 5 5 0 states 10 districts 128 Hawaii 1 134603 42480 7057 Hawaii 2 153132 44816 0 Hawaii state pop 287735 87296 dist 2 0 ev 4 0 margin 50109 Hawaii national pop 19009089 15106176 ev 118 34 delegations 6 5 0 states 11 districts 130 Idaho 1 96932 197167 20337 Idaho 2 110381 170274 0 Idaho state pop 207313 367441 dist 0 2 ev 0 4 margin 40032 Idaho national pop 19216402 15473617 ev 118 38 delegations 6 6 0 states 12 districts 132 Illinois 1 189560 50960 17365 Illinois 2 190684 44567 0 Illinois 3 163053 57885 0 Illinois 4 143895 22294 0 Illinois 5 213992 65134 0 Illinois 6 169001 146445 0 Illinois 7 215746 30497 0 Illinois 8 130054 67073 0 Illinois 9 213368 76983 0 Illinois 10 156540 82124 0 Illinois 11 145407 82358 0 Illinois 12 118724 134884 7935 Illinois 13 134458 136516 0 Illinois 14 156035 141164 0 Illinois 15 74309 181294 0 Illinois 16 104569 151254 0 Illinois 17 142659 87090 0 Illinois 18 95486 195927 0 Illinois state pop 2757540 1754449 dist 13 5 ev 20 0 margin 50154 Illinois national pop 21973942 17228066 ev 138 38 delegations 7 6 0 states 13 districts 150 Indiana 1 159611 85594 0 Indiana 2 103363 125499 0 Indiana 3 86610 158927 0 Indiana 4 87824 156539 0 Indiana 5 137142 180035 0 Indiana 6 79430 154260 8030 Indiana 7 141139 76457 0 Indiana 8 86895 157396 0 Indiana 9 118090 153271 0 Indiana state pop 1000104 1247978 dist 2 7 ev 0 11 margin 22534 Indiana national pop 22974046 18476044 ev 138 49 delegations 7 7 0 states 14 districts 159 Iowa 1 170342 153442 10285 Iowa 2 171446 133287 8018 Iowa 3 181524 195740 12471 Iowa 4 147246 157676 8123 Iowa state pop 670558 640145 dist 2 2 ev 6 0 margin 5068 Iowa national pop 23644604 19116189 ev 144 49 delegations 7 7 1 states 15 districts 163 Kansas 1 69076 149708 0 Kansas 2 110596 165000 14402 Kansas 3 164253 136104 7643 Kansas 4 93384 138856 0 Kansas state pop 437309 589668 dist 1 3 ev 0 6 margin 25393 Kansas national pop 24081913 19705857 ev 144 55 delegations 7 8 1 states 16 districts 167 Kentucky 1 78849 172167 0 Kentucky 2 79964 171700 5681 Kentucky 3 173002 101930 3788 Kentucky 4 90536 162946 8318 Kentucky 5 45890 172093 0 Kentucky 6 144736 154468 3684 Kentucky state pop 612977 935304 dist 1 5 ev 0 8 margin 40290 Kentucky national pop 24694890 20641161 ev 144 63 delegations 7 9 1 states 17 districts 173 Louisiana 1 44273 192555 32497 Louisiana 2 190182 45800 45800 Louisiana 3 100241 231017 65338 Louisiana 4 72934 139326 4612 Louisiana 5 67118 149018 7810 Louisiana 6 55089 186553 26883 Louisiana state pop 529837 944269 dist 1 5 ev 0 8 margin 51804 Louisiana national pop 25224727 21585430 ev 144 71 delegations 7 10 1 states 18 districts 179 Maine 1 198853 109714 29569 Maine 2 144962 181168 23433 Maine state pop 343815 290882 dist 1 1 ev 3 1 margin 13233 Maine national pop 25568542 21876312 ev 147 72 delegations 7 10 2 states 19 districts 181 Maryland 1 116631 183662 5744 Maryland 2 167201 77782 8119 Maryland 3 202407 82774 7476 Maryland 4 209642 53327 5326 Maryland 5 213796 82361 7674 Maryland 6 163346 105209 8247 Maryland 7 202345 56266 5827 Maryland 8 217679 96525 4853 Maryland state pop 1493047 737906 dist 7 1 ev 10 0 margin 75514 Maryland national pop 27061589 22614218 ev 157 72 delegations 8 10 2 states 20 districts 189 Massachusetts 1 194036 123953 0 Massachusetts 2 191332 93391 0 Massachusetts 3 173175 93445 12572 Massachusetts 4 225976 133705 0 Massachusetts 5 236243 74856 0 Massachusetts 6 217703 104798 11309 Massachusetts 7 254037 36018 0 Massachusetts 8 231356 131624 0 Massachusetts 9 193224 131739 0 Massachusetts state pop 1917082 923529 dist 9 0 ev 11 0 margin 90323 Massachusetts national pop 28978671 23537747 ev 168 72 delegations 9 10 2 states 21 districts 198 Michigan 1 145246 187251 0 Michigan 2 131254 168970 5239 Michigan 3 134185 169107 7445 Michigan 4 106540 178510 0 Michigan 5 164502 99265 12646 Michigan 6 134082 147436 11920 Michigan 7 136330 158730 0 Michigan 8 172880 159782 8931 Michigan 9 181734 112123 10706 Michigan 10 106061 182808 14195 Michigan 11 181912 158463 10526 Michigan 12 200588 85115 8925 Michigan 13 165355 30166 30166 Michigan 14 214334 45899 4761 Michigan state pop 2175003 1883625 dist 7 7 ev 16 0 margin 18211 Michigan national pop 31153674 25421372 ev 184 72 delegations 9 10 3 states 22 districts 212 Minnesota 1 144885 146200 0 Minnesota 2 177958 159344 0 Minnesota 3 202404 160839 0 Minnesota 4 216865 97747 13776 Minnesota 5 267703 74440 0 Minnesota 6 122332 192931 0 Minnesota 7 146672 134668 0 Minnesota 8 141950 159364 12741 Minnesota state pop 1420769 1125533 dist 5 3 ev 10 0 margin 29523 Minnesota national pop 32574443 26546905 ev 194 72 delegations 10 10 3 states 23 districts 220 Mississippi 1 74836 155192 1630 Mississippi 2 149412 58802 58802 Mississippi 3 90213 155857 2428 Mississippi 4 56743 134605 2029 Mississippi state pop 371204 504456 dist 1 3 ev 0 6 margin 22208 Mississippi national pop 32945647 27051361 ev 194 78 delegations 10 11 3 states 24 districts 224 Missouri 1 219781 45867 8727 Missouri 2 177611 192477 5969 Missouri 3 106589 211243 6776 Missouri 4 95968 190138 7210 Missouri 5 175019 101069 7692 Missouri 6 97660 199796 7953 Missouri 7 89190 196343 10920 Missouri 8 66151 194042 4206 Missouri state pop 1027969 1330975 dist 2 6 ev 0 10 margin 30300 Missouri national pop 33973616 28382336 ev 194 88 delegations 10 12 3 states 25 districts 232 Montana 1 233284 256661 14476 Montana state pop 233284 256661 dist 0 1 ev 0 3 margin 7792 Montana national pop 34206900 28638997 ev 194 91 delegations 10 13 3 states 26 districts 233 Nebraska 1 93069 141712 0 Nebraska 2 121770 126715 0 Nebraska 3 49654 163650 0 Nebraska state pop 264493 432077 dist 0 3 ev 0 5 margin 33516 Nebraska national pop 34471393 29071074 ev 194 96 delegations 10 14 3 states 27 districts 236 Nevada 1 100707 46978 4516 Nevada 2 120102 167435 0 Nevada 3 148501 122566 15101 Nevada 4 121962 102748 10158 Nevada state pop 491272 439727 dist 3 1 ev 6 0 margin 8590 Nevada national pop 34962665 29510801 ev 200 96 delegations 11 14 3 states 28 districts 240 New_Hampshire 1 155710 130955 4190 New_Hampshire 2 155239 117957 6162 New_Hampshire state pop 310949 248912 dist 2 0 ev 4 0 margin 15509 New_Hampshire national pop 35273614 29759713 ev 204 96 delegations 12 14 3 states 29 districts 242 New_Jersey 1 169628 87617 6173 New_Jersey 2 136685 116866 4812 New_Jersey 3 153473 149500 3902 New_Jersey 4 126766 163065 4517 New_Jersey 5 169546 128255 4022 New_Jersey 6 140752 80443 0 New_Jersey 7 166985 150785 4972 New_Jersey 8 119881 28725 4849 New_Jersey 9 140832 57854 1730 New_Jersey 10 175253 20191 4715 New_Jersey 11 183684 136322 3568 New_Jersey 12 173334 79041 0 New_Jersey state pop 1856819 1198664 dist 11 1 ev 14 0 margin 47011 New_Jersey national pop 37130433 30958377 ev 218 96 delegations 13 14 3 states 30 districts 254 New_Mexico 1 147336 90507 11319 New_Mexico 2 101489 97767 0 New_Mexico 3 155201 76427 13265 New_Mexico state pop 404026 264701 dist 3 0 ev 5 0 margin 27865 New_Mexico national pop 37534459 31223078 ev 223 96 delegations 14 14 3 states 31 districts 257 New_York 1 127991 139027 2988 New_York 2 113074 128078 0 New_York 3 157456 109514 0 New_York 4 159535 100571 0 New_York 5 211667 31322 0 New_York 6 111646 11209 11209 New_York 7 146687 10410 10410 New_York 8 180376 11028 11028 New_York 9 181455 20901 779 New_York 10 173095 37619 0 New_York 11 101823 89441 774 New_York 12 217430 30446 3728 New_York 13 180035 10268 0 New_York 14 110318 19202 11602 New_York 15 124469 5205 0 New_York 16 212644 63590 0 New_York 17 170168 23150 23150 New_York 18 139564 112035 0 New_York 19 147873 132873 7148 New_York 20 176811 89058 0 New_York 21 99791 131981 3437 New_York 22 127715 123242 0 New_York 23 109932 130323 0 New_York 24 123226 136920 0 New_York 25 159244 110736 0 New_York 26 169166 61488 0 New_York 27 122107 206869 5973 New_York state pop 4055298 2076506 dist 21 6 ev 29 0 margin 68234 New_York national pop 41589757 33299584 ev 252 96 delegations 15 14 3 states 32 districts 284 North_Carolina 1 188074 81486 0 North_Carolina 2 148959 167382 9427 North_Carolina 3 121094 198864 0 North_Carolina 4 242002 80546 11947 North_Carolina 5 118558 158444 0 North_Carolina 6 122323 159651 0 North_Carolina 7 119606 155705 4599 North_Carolina 8 112971 140347 0 North_Carolina 9 147072 186974 5042 North_Carolina 10 112386 164060 0 North_Carolina 11 115824 177230 6074 North_Carolina 12 202228 74639 0 North_Carolina 13 128764 145962 8231 North_Carolina state pop 1879861 1891290 dist 3 10 ev 0 15 margin 761 North_Carolina national pop 43469618 35190874 ev 252 111 delegations 15 15 3 states 33 districts 297 North_Dakota 1 114377 193568 13066 North_Dakota state pop 114377 193568 dist 0 1 ev 0 3 margin 26397 North_Dakota national pop 43583995 35384442 ev 252 114 delegations 15 16 3 states 34 districts 298 Ohio 1 141118 154409 5339 Ohio 2 119333 166714 3606 Ohio 3 181575 65040 0 Ohio 4 89412 167993 0 Ohio 5 99655 176569 7393 Ohio 6 76716 172774 0 Ohio 7 107536 153117 0 Ohio 8 87281 173852 0 Ohio 9 157219 74670 0 Ohio 10 118785 157554 5387 Ohio 11 206138 44486 0 Ohio 12 161251 175677 4718 Ohio 13 153323 98047 0 Ohio 14 137549 169809 0 Ohio 15 116112 170593 5738 Ohio 16 129681 170029 0 Ohio state pop 2082684 2291333 dist 4 12 ev 0 18 margin 11591 Ohio national pop 45666679 37675775 ev 252 132 delegations 15 17 3 states 35 districts 314 Oklahoma 1 103042 150129 0 Oklahoma 2 65021 140451 10530 Oklahoma 3 61152 172913 0 Oklahoma 4 78088 149227 9323 Oklahoma 5 121149 117811 0 Oklahoma state pop 428452 730531 dist 1 4 ev 0 7 margin 43154 Oklahoma national pop 46095131 38406306 ev 252 139 delegations 15 18 3 states 36 districts 319 Oregon 1 231198 116446 15121 Oregon 2 145298 207597 15536 Oregon 3 279019 76187 28606 Oregon 4 208710 152414 11326 Oregon 5 197187 149887 10856 Oregon state pop 1061412 702531 dist 4 1 ev 7 0 margin 51268 Oregon national pop 47156543 39108837 ev 259 139 delegations 16 18 3 states 37 districts 324 Pennsylvania 1 160745 169053 0 Pennsylvania 2 159600 42382 0 Pennsylvania 3 287610 20387 0 Pennsylvania 4 211524 121467 0 Pennsylvania 5 198639 106075 0 Pennsylvania 6 177704 124124 0 Pennsylvania 7 140813 114437 8011 Pennsylvania 8 135603 112563 0 Pennsylvania 9 100204 148723 0 Pennsylvania 10 141668 149365 0 Pennsylvania 11 113876 163708 0 Pennsylvania 12 82825 161047 0 Pennsylvania 13 74733 178533 0 Pennsylvania 14 110051 151386 0 Pennsylvania 15 78327 165245 0 Pennsylvania 16 124109 135348 2939 Pennsylvania 17 183162 142417 0 Pennsylvania 18 224898 125091 0 Pennsylvania state pop 2706091 2331351 dist 9 9 ev 20 0 margin 18737 Pennsylvania national pop 49862634 41440188 ev 279 139 delegations 16 18 4 states 38 districts 342 Rhode_Island 1 116099 57567 0 Rhode_Island 2 126476 72271 0 Rhode_Island state pop 242575 129838 dist 2 0 ev 4 0 margin 28184 Rhode_Island national pop 50105209 41570026 ev 283 139 delegations 17 18 4 states 39 districts 344 South_Carolina 1 145455 141473 0 South_Carolina 2 109199 144642 3111 South_Carolina 3 70046 153338 2697 South_Carolina 4 89182 145321 9203 South_Carolina 5 103129 141757 3443 South_Carolina 6 144765 58282 3214 South_Carolina 7 96564 142681 0 South_Carolina state pop 758340 927494 dist 2 5 ev 0 9 margin 18794 South_Carolina national pop 50863549 42497520 ev 283 148 delegations 17 19 4 states 40 districts 351 South_Dakota 1 121033 202695 12237 South_Dakota state pop 121033 202695 dist 0 1 ev 0 3 margin 27220 South_Dakota national pop 50984582 42700215 ev 283 151 delegations 17 20 4 states 41 districts 352 Tennessee 1 47138 172835 4309 Tennessee 2 86668 172856 2610 Tennessee 3 84731 156512 4522 Tennessee 4 78065 147323 7056 Tennessee 5 177923 84317 0 Tennessee 6 70370 172810 5560 Tennessee 7 81661 170071 2652 Tennessee 8 74755 168030 5560 Tennessee 9 145139 34901 1436 Tennessee state pop 846450 1279655 dist 2 7 ev 0 11 margin 39382 Tennessee national pop 51831032 43979870 ev 283 162 delegations 17 21 4 states 42 districts 361 Texas 1 61263 168165 3292 Texas 2 119992 139188 4212 Texas 3 138234 169520 4604 Texas 4 57400 188667 3178 Texas 5 78666 130617 0 Texas 6 116350 135961 3731 Texas 7 127959 115642 0 Texas 8 67930 200619 4621 Texas 9 136256 16745 16745 Texas 10 144034 157166 6627 Texas 11 40631 176603 3143 Texas 12 90994 172557 4940 Texas 13 35083 169027 3175 Texas 14 92212 138942 3374 Texas 15 98333 63862 2607 Texas 16 124437 49127 8147 Texas 17 98070 134841 4440 Texas 18 138704 38368 7260 Texas 19 50039 151946 0 Texas 20 139038 32925 32925 Texas 21 168421 177654 7542 Texas 22 138153 152750 6502 Texas 23 115154 107276 4425 Texas 24 125231 133317 4870 Texas 25 136385 163023 5145 Texas 26 121938 185551 5016 Texas 27 75929 125118 6374 Texas 28 117494 21732 21732 Texas 29 88188 28098 1199 Texas 30 166784 16390 16390 Texas 31 136362 144680 4965 Texas 32 144067 126101 5452 Texas 33 90805 26120 2299 Texas 34 85825 57243 0 Texas 35 138278 50553 5236 Texas 36 60908 161048 0 Texas state pop 3865547 4227142 dist 14 22 ev 0 38 margin 9515 Texas national pop 55696579 48207012 ev 283 200 delegations 17 22 4 states 43 districts 397 Utah 1 63308 156692 34333 Utah 2 105051 151489 13504 Utah 3 70686 174856 13316 Utah 4 134964 134270 0 Utah state pop 374009 617307 dist 1 3 ev 0 6 margin 40549 Utah national pop 56070588 48824319 ev 283 206 delegations 17 23 4 states 44 districts 401 Vermont 1 188547 70705 13034 Vermont state pop 188547 70705 dist 1 0 ev 3 0 margin 39280 Vermont national pop 56259135 48895024 ev 286 206 delegations 18 23 4 states 45 districts 402 Virginia 1 148464 183250 0 Virginia 2 139571 133458 0 Virginia 3 205746 103064 0 Virginia 4 187642 107706 4233 Virginia 5 145040 165339 0 Virginia 6 113133 167957 0 Virginia 7 176079 169295 4216 Virginia 8 247137 76899 0 Virginia 9 85833 160933 0 Virginia 10 206356 160841 0 Virginia 11 219191 83023 5546 Virginia state pop 1874192 1511765 dist 7 4 ev 13 0 margin 27879 Virginia national pop 58133327 50406789 ev 299 206 delegations 19 23 4 states 46 districts 413 Washington 1 197209 135534 0 Washington 2 210187 84646 84646 Washington 3 145407 161819 0 Washington 4 83785 141551 0 Washington 5 144925 175422 0 Washington 6 206409 116677 0 Washington 7 329800 64881 0 Washington 8 164089 148968 0 Washington 9 163345 77222 77222 Washington 10 166215 103860 0 Washington state pop 1811371 1210580 dist 7 3 ev 12 0 margin 50065 Washington national pop 59944698 51617369 ev 311 206 delegations 20 23 4 states 47 districts 423 West_Virginia 1 70402 128725 0 West_Virginia 2 86678 109018 6213 West_Virginia 3 75776 98048 0 West_Virginia state pop 232856 335791 dist 0 3 ev 0 5 margin 20587 West_Virginia national pop 60177554 51953160 ev 311 211 delegations 20 24 4 states 48 districts 426 Wisconsin 1 137508 177492 10006 Wisconsin 2 271507 119608 0 Wisconsin 3 187888 126980 0 Wisconsin 4 206487 59091 7170 Wisconsin 5 138385 225619 0 Wisconsin 6 144536 180311 0 Wisconsin 7 124307 194061 4416 Wisconsin 8 119265 209410 0 Wisconsin state pop 1329883 1292572 dist 3 5 ev 10 0 margin 3731 Wisconsin national pop 61507437 53245732 ev 321 211 delegations 20 25 4 states 49 districts 434 Wyoming 1 59903 127963 12988 Wyoming state pop 59903 127963 dist 0 1 ev 0 3 margin 22686 Wyoming national pop 61567340 53373695 ev 321 214 delegations 20 26 4 states 50 districts 435 DC 1 282830 12723 15715 DC state pop 282830 12723 dist 1 0 ev 3 0 margin 90035 DC national pop 61850170 53386418 ev 324 214 delegations 21 26 4 states 51 districts 436