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Although popular votes are usually fairly decisive, electoral votes are much closer, and who will be president is decided by a fairly small number of voters in a fairly small number of states. That's because a state's electoral votes are allocated on a winner-take-all basis, except for Maine since at least 1976, and Nebraska since at least 1992. These two allocate one vote per congressional district, and two votes to the at-large winner. That means a lot of special-case coding while processing data for studies like this one!
What should be done instead in the future is a subject for another discussion. This report is a list of past experiences in recent elections and some not-so-recent close elections (winner got < 51% of popular vote):
7 of these elections could have been flipped by flipping less than 70000 of the right votes from the other major party. Flipping one third party vote is probably easier, but twice as many are required.
The wall is lower for Republicans than Democrats; they could move the election to the House if they could lower the Democratic votes to less than a majority, even if the Democrat still has more electoral votes than the Republican. Once is the House, the voting-by-states rural bias of the 12th Amendment assures a Republican victory.
This study is about how the past worked. The next phase is to see how different possible ways of organizing presidential elections would have worked out in these various situations. One way is to use variants of the Maine method in all states - but that depends on knowing how presidential votes went according to Federal congressional districts. Maine and Nebraska have to keep track of that, but many states do not. David Nir tries to make the best of the available data at Daily Kos. Stay tuned as I work out various scenarios.
The big question is how to resolve these two major issues:
Trump still can't get over that he barely lost the electoral vote, even though he barely won in the same way in 2016, in both cases losing the popular vote by a landslide. However modern Republicans, hearkening back to the biases of their Dixiecrat forebears, believe rural voters are much more important than urban voters, and they continue to make sure that the system remains rigged for rural.
But in 2020, Trump lost by 74 electoral votes, so flipping 38 from Democratic to Republican would have given him an outright victory. Flipping 37 would have resulted in a tie, putting the election in the hands of the House voting by state delegations, insuring a Trump win according to the 12th Amendment. What would have been the easiest way to get there?
2020 need 37 by flipping between major parties d 306 r 232 5890 16 368 RMARGIN2 GA 2473633 2461854 64473 4999960 5229 11 475 RMARGIN2 AZ 1672143 1661686 53497 3387326 10341 10 1034 RMARGIN2 WI 1630866 1610184 56991 3298041 major party flip SUCCESS - flipped ev count 37 pop count 21460
This table lists the closest races in order of electoral votes available per popular vote. The first line means that the Republicans need 37 electoral votes switched from Democrats to go to the House. The second line
5890 16 368 GA 2473633 2461854 64473 4999960means: the Georgia state popular vote was 2473633 Democratic, 2461854 Republican, 64473 other, and 4999960 total. Georgia's 16 electoral votes could have been switched by changing 5890 Democratic votes to Republican (or by disqualifying twice that number of Democratic votes, as Trump tried to persuade the Georgia election officials to do.) That is a remarkably efficient - 368 popular votes switched per electoral vote! The table is sorted according to such efficiency.
Here's one route to exactly 38:
5890 16 368 GA 2473633 2461854 64473 4999960 5229 11 475 AZ 1672143 1661686 53497 3387326 10341 10 1034 WI 1630866 1610184 56991 3298041 11046 1 11045 NE-2 176468 154377 8821 339666at the cost of flipping 32506 popular votes, including Nebraska's second district! But what about Pennsylvania?
5890 16 368 GA 2473633 2461854 64473 4999960 5229 11 475 AZ 1672143 1661686 53497 3387326 40278 20 2013 PA 3458229 3377674 79380 6915283No need for the 12th Amendment - at the cost of flipping 51397 popular votes. But what about Nevada?
5889 16 368 GA 2473633 2461854 64473 4999960 5229 11 475 AZ 1672143 1661686 53497 3387326 10341 10 1034 WI 1630866 1610184 56991 3298041 16798 6 2799 NV 703486 669890 32000 140537643 electoral votes for only flipping 38257 popular votes.
2016 was almost as close -
2016 need 43 by flipping between major parties d 227 r 304 5352 16 334 MI 2268839 2279543 250902 4799284 22146 20 1107 PA 2926441 2970733 268304 6165478 11374 10 1137 WI 1382536 1405284 188330 2976150 major party flip SUCCESS - flipped ev count 46 pop count 38872
What would it have taken to secure a Clinton win? Flipping 43 electoral
votes - a tie isn't good enough because of the 12th Amendment.
As reported at the time, flipping the right
38872 popular votes would have changed the outcome.
Unlike 2020, there is only one plausible route.
Flipping Green votes would have almost worked.
Compared to 2020 and 2016, 2012 was not nearly as close.
Romney was short by 63.
2008 wasn't as close as 2012 - McCain was short 97.
2012
2012 need 63 by flipping between major parties d 332 r 206
margins-2012.log MARGIN2
37155 29 1281 RMARGIN2 FL 4237756 4163447 72976 8474179
83136 18 4618 RMARGIN2 OH 2827709 2661437 91701 5580847
19822 4 4955 RMARGIN2 NH 369561 329918 11493 710972
74649 13 5742 RMARGIN2 VA 1971820 1822522 60147 3854489
needed 63 electoral votes, got 64
flipped 214762 popular votes
2008
2008 need 96 by flipping between major parties d 365 r 173
7089 15 472 RMARGIN2 NC 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789
14196 11 1290 RMARGIN2 IN 1374039 1345648 31367 2751054
118225 27 4378 RMARGIN2 FL 4282074 4045624 63046 8390744
131112 20 6555 RMARGIN2 OH 2940044 2677820 90486 5708350
34146 4 8536 RMARGIN2 NH 384826 316534 9610 710970
117264 13 9020 RMARGIN2 VA 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260
73281 7 10468 RMARGIN2 IA 828940 682379 25804 1537123
needed 96 electoral votes, got 97
flipped 495313 popular votes
That requires flipping 495313 popular votes. Memo to Republicans:
keep Sarah Palin retired.
2004
2004 need 19 by flipping between major parties d 251 r 286
59301 20 2965 DMARGIN2 OH 2741167 2859768 26973 5627908
major party flip SUCCESS - flipped ev count 20 pop count 59301
Very close - only 19 electoral votes needed to flip from Bush to Kerry.
The right 59301 popular votes flipped would have made the difference.
Republicans can thank
Jerome Corsi
for his
inventiveness in fabricating dirt.
Needless to say, he was an associate of Roger Stone.
At least Bush can say he won the popular vote that time -
50.73% - more than most recent Republican presidential candidates
can say.
We think of this as the grandfather of (recent) close elections -
I never wasted a vote on a third-party candidate again.
269 popular votes flipped in Florida - or 3605 in NH or 10798 in NV.
Or 537 third-party FL votes flipped to Democratic.
Roger Stone again.
Carter couldn't overcome the stagflation and the Iran hostage crisis.
OH+HI would have made the difference - 9244 flipped popular votes.
This might have been the
last election that HI was in play.
Nixon vs Humphrey - with lots of disgusted third-party action.
Tricky Dick could have gone to the House with 35.
The 1948 election was quite complicated, with Strom Thurmond and uncommitted
electoral voters.
The scripts and log files for this project.
You know the drill:
Most of the election data back to 1984 is from the
Federal Election Commission.
However the 2020 results and results prior to 1984, as well as Maine and
Nebraska district results, are from Wikipedia pages like
Data formats are not uniform and so there is plenty of room for
copying and coding errors.
Please let me know if you spot any.
Previous related work is at
2000
2000 need 4 by flipping between major parties d 266 r 271
269 25 10 FL 2912253 2912790 138067 5963110
major party flip SUCCESS - flipped ev count 25 pop count 269
3605 4 901 NH 266348 273559 29174 569081
10798 4 2699 NV 279978 301575 27417 608970
1996
1996 need 110 by flipping between major parties d 379 r 159
2365 4 591 RMARGIN2 NV 203974 199244 61061 464279
6666 8 833 RMARGIN2 KY 636614 623283 128811 1388708
15608 8 1951 RMARGIN2 AZ 653288 622073 129044 1404405
22808 11 2073 RMARGIN2 TN 909146 863530 121429 1894105
20372 5 4074 RMARGIN2 NM 273495 232751 49828 556074
151167 25 6046 RMARGIN2 FL 2546870 2244536 512388 5303794
24841 4 6210 RMARGIN2 NH 246214 196532 56429 499175
144170 21 6865 RMARGIN2 OH 2148222 1859883 526329 4534434
20647 3 6882 RMARGIN2 DE 140355 99062 31428 270845
207325 23 9014 RMARGIN2 PA 2215819 1801169 489130 4506118
needed 110 electoral votes, got 112
flipped 615969 popular votes
1992
1992 need 101 by flipping between major parties d 370 r 168
6857 13 527 RMARGIN2 GA 1008966 995252 316915 2321133
3278 4 819 RMARGIN2 NH 209040 202484 125691 537215
6660 4 1665 RMARGIN2 NV 189148 175828 141342 506318
5150 3 1716 RMARGIN2 MT 154507 144207 111869 410583
45316 21 2157 RMARGIN2 OH 1984942 1894310 1060712 4939964
39671 15 2644 RMARGIN2 NJ 1436206 1356865 550523 3343594
23963 8 2995 RMARGIN2 KY 665104 617178 210618 1492900
33416 8 4177 RMARGIN2 CO 629681 562850 376649 1569180
46111 11 4191 RMARGIN2 TN 933521 841300 207817 1982638
41293 9 4588 RMARGIN2 LA 815971 733386 240660 1790017
24397 5 4879 RMARGIN2 NM 261617 212824 95545 569986
needed 101 electoral votes, got 101
flipped 276112 popular votes
1980
1980 need 221 by flipping between major parties d 49 r 489
1915 14 136 DMARGIN2 MA 1053802 1057631 412865 2524298
2355 10 235 DMARGIN2 TN 783051 787761 46804 1617616
2562 6 427 DMARGIN2 AR 398041 403164 36377 837582
5904 7 843 DMARGIN2 MS 429281 441089 22250 892620
6824 8 853 DMARGIN2 SC 427560 441207 21316 890083
2749 3 916 DMARGIN2 DE 105754 111252 18662 235668
8731 9 970 DMARGIN2 AL 636730 654192 51007 1341929
19692 13 1514 DMARGIN2 NC 875635 915018 65180 1855833
82730 41 2017 DMARGIN2 NY 2728372 2893831 579756 6201959
6354 3 2118 DMARGIN2 VT 81891 94598 36718 213207
42200 10 4220 DMARGIN2 LA 708453 792853 47285 1548591
53631 11 4875 DMARGIN2 WI 981584 1088845 202792 2273221
71500 12 5958 DMARGIN2 MO 931182 1074181 94461 2099824
162166 27 6006 DMARGIN2 PA 1937540 2261872 362089 4561501
126847 21 6040 DMARGIN2 MI 1661532 1915225 332968 3909725
188318 26 7243 DMARGIN2 IL 1981413 2358049 410259 4749721
needed 221 electoral votes, got 221
flipped 784478 popular votes
1976
1976 need 28 by flipping between major parties d 297 r 240
5558 25 222 OH 2011621 2000505 99747 4111873
3686 4 921 HI 147375 140003 3923 291301
major party flip SUCCESS - flipped ev count 29 pop count 9244
1968
1968 need 79 by flipping between major parties d 191 r 301
2081 6 346 DMARGIN2 AR 184901 189062 235627 609590
1095 3 365 DMARGIN2 AK 35411 37600 10024 83035
10244 12 853 DMARGIN2 MO 791444 811932 206126 1809502
3760 3 1253 DMARGIN2 DE 89194 96714 28459 214367
45214 26 1739 DMARGIN2 OH 1700586 1791014 468098 3959698
30631 17 1801 DMARGIN2 NJ 1264206 1325467 285722 2875395
22836 12 1903 DMARGIN2 GA 334440 380111 535715 1250266
needed 79 electoral votes, got 79
flipped 115861 popular votes
115861 flipped votes - pretty tough.
1960
1960 need 35 by flipping between major parties d 303 r 219
4429 27 164 RMARGIN2 IL 2377846 2368988 10575 4757409
4786 8 598 RMARGIN2 SC 198129 188558 1 386688
needed 35 electoral votes, got 35
flipped 9215 popular votes
Nixon liked to say he lost by one vote per precinct.
The popular vote difference was about 55000 to flip.
1948
1948 need 38 by flipping between major parties d 303 r 189
3554 25 142 RMARGIN2 OH 1452791 1445684 37596 2936071
8933 25 357 RMARGIN2 CA 1913134 1895269 213135 4021538
needed 38 electoral votes, got 50
flipped 12487 popular votes
12487 flipped votes to elect Dewey instead of Truman.
Sources
cat state-margins.tar.gz | gunzip | tar xvf -
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