Tossups in 2024 Election

This web page is an update of the corresponding page for 2022. So most of the background references are from 2022 - it mostly hasn't changed that much. But the results in the tables are from 2024.

Why are so few elections genuinely contested?

How come "money is the mother's milk of politics"?

 AP
 CNN
 Fox
 Washington Post

Races that went D will get a blue background, races that went R a red. Races that went against the predicted direction with be in bold type. Races with a final Odds of "Tossup" don't have a predicted direction.

Pollsters seem to be doing better than in 2016. May they continue to improve!

I hope that all losing candidates, after taking all reasonable steps to verify close outcomes, will graciously concede, for a peaceful transition.

I hope that all candidates, winning and losing, who based their campaigns on lies and rumors, whether spoken by themselves or by others, will repent and make restitution by affirming their future devotion to the Enlightenment ideals of America's founders in all future political activity.

And if that fails, it might be time for regional federalism, so that those that crave minority rule can enjoy it - without making the rest of us pay for it.

With only a few elections contested, and hundreds of millions of dollars going into them, are you wondering which candidates to support for the next Congress - either with money or volunteer time? If you can afford political contributions, do you wonder where to send them where they will do some good? Maybe there aren't any serious contests in your state and district. You could donate to national organizations

• DSCC
• DCCC
• DLCC
• DGA

In 2016 the professional pollsters were often fooled by "independent" or "undecided" voters who had already made up their minds for Trump and Trumpists but didn't want to say so to pollsters who might be liberals. Maybe the pollsters are more discerning now. Maybe not. They offer many caveats. They are all extrapolating from an inaccurate past to an uncertain future.

How can you tell if you are investing wisely or throwing money away? If you have a verifiable method, you have a brilliant career ahead in political consulting. If you just CLAIM to have a verifiable method, you're just like all the others.

In the following, you can find some "Tossups", "leaning Democratic", and "leaning Republican". These are the races that might be worth your money or time.

Tossups might be productive choices, but the leaning might be more of a gamble. Perhaps you should leave the leaning to the megadonor investors. But these classifications are changing constantly - the next court decision, indictment, economic news, pandemic, or foreign policy reversal can change everything - as has already happened several times this summer. So keep checking!

Still, if there are any truly undecided voters left, they will probably decide on the basis of gas prices and inflation on election day, and blame Biden and Democrats, even though inflation is global and in most countries much worse than in America, and even though the GOP doesn't have any better ideas for fighting inflation, or for the recession that might well follow the election - other than, of course, more tax cuts for billionaire megadonors.

Following Odds data from 270towin.com as of election eve, 4 Nov 2024. Some differences of opinion are noted thus:

C- Cook Political Report 2024 Ratings
F- Fox News Power Rankings
S- Sabato's Crystal Ball 2024 Ratings

As a placeholder, "Margin" is the amount donated to the candidate. Margin of vote will go there after the election results are final.

The opposition research under "About" dates from 2022, though little has changed in most cases. Endorsed by Trump! data is for 4 Nov 2024.

Look up other states here - https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/

There are some remarkable House candidates!

Endorsed by Trump! is all you need to know - being endorsed by Trump means the candidate endorses the actions of Trump and other Trumpist candidates as models for future Trumpist elected officials -

• rejecting the Enlightenment ideals of America's founders
• encouraging violent insurrectionists
• asking state election officials to "find" non-existent votes
• stealing top secrets, storing them carelessly, and then lying about it
• denying the legitimacy of the 2020 election - but just where Democrats won
  Leading election deniers
  More election deniers
  Even more election deniers
• cultivating a cult of personality
• praising foreign dictators
• asking foreign leaders to help his re-election
• alienating America's long-time allies
• promoting quack covid cures
• using public office to boost private business profits
• concealing personal finances from the public and lying to lenders and taxing authorities
• pleading the fifth or refusing to testify

Self-sorting populations are part of the reason for uncontested elections.

But uncontested elections are a pillar of minority rule, which depends on gerrymandering to produce one-party districts and one-party states. Are open primaries the solution to one-party rule?

For many offices in many states, the only election that matters is the primary of the dominant party. That winner is sure to win the general election. So only the voters in that primary matter. In those districts, the winner doesn't matter much; it will be one or another of the dominant party's extreme candidates supporting minority rule (whether they know it or not). Megadonors don't have to invest in the general election campaign much. In fact, many of those candidates run unopposed. Gruber and Kresky argue for open primaries, where anybody can vote in whichever primary he wants. That doesn't seem like the best approach.

Why not let the parties run their primaries or caucuses any way they want - on their own dime. The important thing is to repeal "sore-loser" laws so people who run and lose in the primary can try again in the general election.

And that general election must be ranked-choice so that a particular point of view doesn't lose just because it's too popular and attracts too many candidates. That way every voter has a say as to who he'd prefer AND who he'd accept if he can't get his first choice, and no voter wastes a vote because there are too many similar candidates.

As for that other pillar of minority rule that contributes to uncontested elections - gerrymandering - multimember districts, WHEN combined with ranked-choice voting, insure that sizable minorities that choose to vote as a bloc are guaranteed some representation.

Money is the mother's milk of politics

Tired of one-dollar-one vote "democracy"?

Rather donate your money AGAINST unlimited dark campaign money? Check out these organizations:

• American Promise - https://americanpromise.net
• Brennan Center - https://www.brennancenter.org
• Common Cause - https://www.commoncause.org
• Democracy 21 - https://democracy21.org
• Public Citizen - https://www.citizen.org

Ending unlimited dark campaign money is very popular with almost all ordinary voters, but NOT with campaign megadonors who invest in legislators, and NOT with the legislators those megadonors invest in - Mtich McConnell said that the day President Bush signed McCain's bill into law was "the worst day of my political life".

More on political scrapbook at https://www.political-scrapbook.net/about.html There is nothing to buy or sign up for on this website. Please report dead links, typos, and factual errors to web-report at sonic dot net Visitor count for this page starting 30 October 2024: . 2024-tossups.html 1.41 24/11/20