Facebook Posts on economics-2022

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Market timing not Trump's forte. 2022-12-19 11 - 1 2 economics
Silicon Valley Layoffs 2022-11-18 8421 - 1 5 3025 economics
It's getting hard to believe that inflation can be stopped 2022-10-30 22 - 1 1 economics
Income inequality moves from Silicon Valley and Beverly 2022-07-31 13 - economics
Banks used to over-leverage all the time. The 2022-06-17 13 - 1 economics
Best argument for regional federalism? 2022-06-15 10 - economics
There's no there there! The present value of future 2022-06-03 17 - 1 economics
Crypto markets tank - 2022-05-12 13 - 1 economics
Think gas prices are bad? Wait until food and 2022-03-21 6 - 1 economics
If GOP were running the show, they'd remember that the 2022-01-07 3 - economics
Biden tackles meat prices. 2022-01-05 7 1 economics

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UPDATED Tue Jul 30 05:04:46 PM PDT 2024

==========


Market timing not Trump's forte.

 https://cnn.com/2022/12/16/investing/donald-trump-nft-trading/index.html

#PS1economics

=====

comments 1
impact 2
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2022-12-19
ratio 3
react 3
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 2
title Market timing not Trump's forte.
topic economics
wordrate 0
words 6
audclicks 2
commentsimpress 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 1832230267121484
impress 13
matchedlinkclicks 2
pageid 534332363577954
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "12/19/2022 17:12"
rcs 1
reach 11
title "Donald Trump's NFT superhero trading cards timed the market all wrong | CNN Business"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1832230267121484

==========


Silicon Valley Layoffs

If you grew up in the Rust Belt - back when it was the
Arsenal of Democracy - you might remember how layoffs went,
at least at unionized factories.  When the economy turned
down, companies conserved cash by layoffs - strictly in
order of seniority, the most junior first.    When the
economy recovered, laid-off workers were guaranteed to
be rehired - strictly in order of seniority,the most
senior first.

Silicon Valley and other non-unionized areas use the same
term layoffs but they mean the exact opposite - seniority
does not matter, and laid-off workers are almost never
rehired - they might have a bad attitude.

WARN Notices, statutory notices filed by employers with
the state of California -

 https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN

almost always indicate the Layoff Permanent.   For
instance, at

 https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/jobs_and_training/warn/warn_report.xlsx

you can find lines like

254 Santa Clara County      08/16/2022      10/31/2022
10/18/2022 Cepheid                 Layoff Permanent 250
904 Caribbean Drive  Sunnyvale CA 94089

270 San Diego County        10/31/2022      11/01/2022
01/14/2023 Legoland California, LLC Layoff Permanent 558
One Legoland Drive  Carlsbad CA 92008

306 San Francisco County    11/04/2022      11/07/2022
01/04/2023 Twitter, Inc.           Layoff Permanent 784
1355 Market St  San Francisco CA 94103

307 Santa Clara County      11/04/2022      11/07/2022
01/04/2023 Twitter, Inc.           Layoff Permanent 106
3055 Olin Ave., Floor 3  San Jose CA 95128

322 San Francisco County    11/02/2022      11/08/2022
01/02/2023 Chime Financial Inc.    Layoff Permanent 152
101 California Street  San Francisco CA 94111

337 San Francisco County    11/03/2022      11/09/2022
11/11/2022 Lyft, Inc.              Layoff Permanent 227
185 Berry St #5000  San Francisco CA 94107

365 San Francisco County    11/11/2022      11/16/2022
01/13/2023 Meta Platforms, Inc.    Layoff Permanent 362
250 Howard St.  San Francisco CA 94105

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/17/tech-layoffs-san-jose-streaming-giant-roku-plans-to-cut-hundreds-of-jobs/

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/17/cisco-job-tech-4100-layoff-san-jose-real-estate-meta-amazon-twitter/

 https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/11/17/23463164/silicon-valley-layoffs-tech-boom-over

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/15/amazon-bay-area-job-cut-silicon-valley-sunnyvale-tech-layoff-economy/

 https://www.siliconvalley.com/2022/11/15/job-cut-tech-biotech-new-layoff-bay-area-fremont-san-carlos-seagate/

 https://www.siliconvalley.com/2022/11/14/billionaires-gone-wild-musk-zuckerberg-slash-jobs-roll-dice-with-future-of-bay-area-tech-icons/

It's easier to fire 1000 employees than to fire 1,
especially in an actual economic downturn, or when other
companies are doing the same thing.   So instead of
laying off by seniority, these layoffs are mass firings
- a convenient way of getting rid of everybody that
management doesn't want any more, without much risk of
unlawful termination suits, which are expensive to settle
or defend whether justified or not.    Prior to the layoff,
managers are asked for lists of underperfomers and those
are combined to establish the layoff list.

Occasionally a company doing well will announce a
company-wide or site-wide layoff for any number of airy
reasons like right-sizing or re-balance or re-focus, but
most likely - it's just a mass firing.     Sometimes the
layoffs will be spaced out so that none is large enough
to require a WARN notice - 50 jobs in 30 days.

 https://workplacerightslaw.com/library/faq/what-is-the-california-warn-act/

All those people who complained about inflation should be
happy, as well as all-cash real estate buyers -

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/18/now-tech-layoffs-are-slowing-bay-area-housing-market-as-prices-fall-even-more/

==

More about political scrapbook -

 https://www.political-scrapbook.net/about.html

#PS1economics

 https://www.firstpost.com/world/its-the-season-of-layoffs-in-silicon-valley-45000-employees-gone-and-its-not-over-yet-11595071.html

=====

comments 1
impact 134273
impactrate 9
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posted 2022-11-18
ratio 2
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sumclicks 3025
title Silicon Valley Layoffs
topic economics
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words 443
audclicks 3025
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posted "11/18/2022 14:11"
rcs 21
reach 8421
reactions 15
sharesimpress 5
title "It's the season of layoffs in Silicon Valley: 45,000 employees gone and it's not over yet"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1806953216315856

==========


It's getting hard to believe that inflation can be stopped
without a recession.      People have to be too poor to
bid up prices, and unemployment has to be too high for
employees to bid up wages.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/business/fedeal-reserve-inflation-wages.html

It doesn't matter who's in Congress and the White House,
since the inflation is and the recession will be global.
Many import-dependent countries are already in recession.

#PS1economics

=====

comments 1
impact 13
impactrate 0
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posted 2022-10-30
ratio 11
react 2
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sharesrate 0
title It's getting hard to believe that inflation can be stopped
topic economics
wordrate 0
words 64
commentsimpress 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 1792145167796661
impress 23
pageid 534332363577954
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/30/2022 19:10"
rcs 2
reach 22
sharesimpress 1
title "Inflation and Wages Continue to Climb Rapidly, in Bad News for the Fed"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1792145167796661

==========


Income inequality moves from Silicon Valley and Beverly
Hills to Sun Valley.      So much for lower living costs
in Idaho!

 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/us/sun-valley-workforce-housing.html

People who can't afford to live near the rich should just
move away to places where they can afford to live on what
they earn.    Let the idle rich clean their own toilets
and do their own landscaping.     It will be educational
for them.

#PS1economics

=====

impact 0
impactrate 0
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posted 2022-07-31
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Income inequality moves from Silicon Valley and Beverly
topic economics
wordrate 0
words 65
epoch Lifetime
ID 1721318604879318
impress 14
pageid 534332363577954
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/31/2022 20:07"
reach 13
title "A Town’s Housing Crisis Exposes a ‘House of Cards’"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1721318604879318

==========


Banks used to over-leverage all the time.  The
Glass-Steagall Act kept a lid on them from 1933 to 1999.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_legislation

But the wild west lives again - until it doesn't.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/17/technology/tether-stablecoin-cryptocurrency.html

Ultimately, it will be about being over-leveraged to get
higher returns.     Every tech investor expects to be an
instant billionaire!      So even stablecoins can't really
redeem all their coins overnight because they don't keep
their assets in cash available overnight - because as
every saver knows, the rate of return won't make anybody
a billionaire.   It'll hardly pay to keep the computers
running to keep track of it all.

So they invest in other things that are less liquid,
higher risk, and higher yield.      When savings and
loans did that under Reagan in the 1980's, many failed and
their depositors were bailed out - by taxpayers of course.
Even worse when regular banks did the same under Bush in
the 2000's.

The difference with crypto is that there is no federal
deposit insurance.       The taxpayers will not bail out
the speculators.     Good news for taxpayers, bad news
for speculators.

Why would everybody want to bail out of crypto overnight?
Mass psychology in a down market - margin calls in one
kind of investment lead to panic selling in other kinds.
You never want to be the last person in line at a bank run.

#PS1economics

=====

impact 22
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2022-06-17
ratio 13
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title Banks used to over-leverage all the time. The
topic economics
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audclicks 1
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pageid 534332363577954
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posted "06/17/2022 10:06"
reach 13
title "The Coin That Could Wreck Crypto"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1688784804799365

==========


Best argument for regional federalism?

 https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2020-regional.html

Most swing voters vote their pocketbooks.    They reject
the guys in charge without understanding whether the other
guys could do any better, and also without understanding
what OTHER things the other guys would do.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/15/inflation-anger-could-sweep-election-deniers-midterm-victory/

Economics is complicated because,  like politics, it's
a large part mass psychology and a small part rational
logical inquiry.   Cause and effect is easy to claim and
hard to prove.

#PS1economics

=====

impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2022-06-15
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Best argument for regional federalism?
topic economics
wordrate 0
words 70
epoch Lifetime
ID 1687648944912951
impress 12
pageid 534332363577954
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "06/15/2022 21:06"
rcs 1
reach 10
reactions 1
title "Opinion | Inflation could put election deniers in charge of our democracy"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1687648944912951

==========


There's no there there!     The present value of future
crypto dividends is... zero.      The only hope for profit
is to find a bigger fool than you who will pay more than
you paid.       As always, there are way more losers
than winners.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/03/crypto-scams-ftc/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/03/crypto-skeptics-growing/

#PS1economics

=====

impact 4
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2022-06-03
ratio 17
react 1
reactrate 0
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sumclicks 1
title There's no there there! The present value of future
topic economics
wordrate 0
words 43
audclicks 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 1679191352425377
impress 17
matchedlinkclicks 1
pageid 534332363577954
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "06/03/2022 15:06"
reach 17
title "The crypto-skeptics’ voices are getting louder"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1679191352425377

==========


Crypto markets tank -

 https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/12/investing/luna-terra-stablecoin-explained/index.html

Even as crypto CEO's and investors spread cash far and
wide in DC.

 https://apnews.com/article/cryptocurrency-technology-congress-b93f1f2dc4971a16af8133e24ebd9bb5

So far crypto is mainly useful for criminals and scammers.
Algorithmic stablecoins are definitely not the answer.
Other stablecoins aren't either - the only way to get
internet kinds of return running a stablecoin operastion is
by keeping deposits in risky investments.  But there's no
difference between a real bank run and a crypto bank run.

#PS1economics

=====

impact 7
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2022-05-12
ratio 13
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sumclicks 1
title Crypto markets tank -
topic economics
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posted "05/12/2022 16:05"
reach 13
title "Crypto comes to Washington. Will the millions buy influence?"
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URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1662969827380863

==========


Think gas prices are bad?     Wait until food and
fertilizer shortages sink in.

 https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-canada-lifestyle-middle-east-1c8918d4734f0974eefe09121d2090ed

No quick fix - increasing global drought due to climate
change, rising prices for fuel and fertilizer, yet
no guarantee that today's high prices will last long
enough to justify changes in farming.     Farmers are a
conservative bunch.

The population carrying capacity of the earth depends on
global trade and stable global climate.        Both are
victims of war - big countries want to protect themselves
by making sure all critical raw materials and manufacturing
are done domestically.     That means changing sources from
the low-cost producer to the low-risk producer.  And better
to burn your own dirty coal than import fuel from unstable
global markets.       Burning coal contributes to climate
change and drought.

 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/ukraine-war-threatens-to-cause-a-global-food-crisis/articleshow/90349465.cms

#PS1economics

=====

impact 13
impactrate 0
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posted 2022-03-21
ratio 6
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sumclicks 1
title Think gas prices are bad? Wait until food and
topic economics
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audclicks 1
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ID 1625455817798931
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pageid 534332363577954
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posted "03/21/2022 19:03"
reach 6
title "Ukraine war threatens to cause a global food crisis"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1625455817798931

==========


If GOP were running the show, they'd remember that the
free market will solve all economy problems - eventually.
But as long as they're out of power, they're free to
criticize the Democrats for not solving problems quickly.

 https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-health-elections-7b9a7d40c53f94504f2bcec7e22d7cb0

When GOP returns to power, it can return to its traditional
stance of expediting relief to those who deserve it
(because they are major donors) rather than those who need
it, who are too poor to donate.     Socialism for the rich,
free enterprise for the poor - it was ever thus.

#PS1economics

=====

impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2022-01-07
reactrate 0
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title If GOP were running the show, they'd remember that the
topic economics
wordrate 0
words 90
epoch Lifetime
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pageid 534332363577954
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "01/07/2022 12:01"
reach 3
title "Biden's economic challenge: Finding workers and goods | AP News"
type Link
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1575793969431783

==========


Biden tackles meat prices.

 https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-lifestyle-business-prices-inflation-78335dba9802d7eb727744301d4489df

Standard out-of-power GOP response is to let the free
market solve the problem.       Free markets won't solve
the problems of unfree markets due to market concentration
- which is inherently harmful even if no laws are broken.
And when it can work, the free market is too slow in an
election year - as Trump demonstrated repeatedly, holding
photo-ops promising to help struggling industries and
then doing nothing.   The photo-op was the solution to
his problem.

Biden can't really make much progress against economic
concentration without help from Congress - which GOP has
vowed to withhold, especially in an election year in which
their success depends on the economy being in as bad a
shape as possible.

#PS1economics

=====

impact 12
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posted 2022-01-05
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title Biden tackles meat prices.
topic economics
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posted "01/05/2022 09:01"
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title "Biden: More competition in meat industry can ease food costs | AP News"
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URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/1574403442904169