The table above has these entries. Post entries with just one line for Reach were not boosted. Boosted posts have two lines for Reach and several other items. The upper line reflects all interactions, the bottom line just those resulting from paid ads.
========== Repeating mistakes Wars aren't over when you tweet that they are over. There needs to be some objective reality - as Trump evidently understood at one point - and has since forgotten - as one of his usual cheerleaders points out - https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/marc-thiessen-trump-is-about-to-repeat-obamas-mistake-in-the-middle-east What are the Republicans going to do about it? Some kind of intervention is needed - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/impeach-fire-president-trump.html but in a way that doesn't offend the hard-core Trump base enough to support him as a third-party candidate in 2020 - which will really make the Republicans wish they'd promoted ranked-choice voting while they had the chance. And doesn't push traditional Republicans into supporting a more rational centrist third party. The timing and tone will be very hard to get right. But they asked for it. https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/772890319722156 Bizarrely, somebody is finding it worthwhile to rewrite conservative commentary - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/someone-put-a-fake-headline-on-one-of-my-columns-trump-supporters-bought-it-and-blasted-me/2018/12/23/3f403e52-06ef-11e9-a3f0-71c95106d96a_story.html One wonders what the mother tongue of that forger might be? Of course the hard cores kept re-tweeting it even after the forgery was proven. And if all that that weren't enough, the economy is overdue for a recession - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/trump-economy-stock-market.html It seems impossible to avoid over the next couple of years, no matter who is in charge and no matter what policies they adopt. The business cycle will get you if you don't watch out - and it will get you if you do, sooner or later. Three possible causes of the next recession - https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/stocks-are-nosediving-recession-coming/576568/ But maybe there won't be a specific identifiable cause. Investors might collectively run out of optimism, and the markets will run out of buyers. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#cycle If Trump is in charge, voters will blame him anyway. The unTrumpist Republicans will too, as if they had nothing to do with it. == topic election 1 ===== impact 198 impactrate 0 likeimpress 3 negative 0 posted 2018-12-24 priority 1 ratio 7 react 7 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 4 title Repeating mistakes topic election wordrate 0 words 283 ID 775514442793077 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/775514442793077 audclicks 4 audreach 3 engaged 4 impress 97 likeclickusers 4 likeimpress 3 likeuimpress 59 likeusers 3 likeuusers 50 matchedotherclicks 4 oimpress 97 oreach 53 posted "12/24/2018 06:47:49 AM" postotherclicks 3 reach 53 type Link ========== Aim at the middle Even when they are not numerous, the people in the middle who might vote either way have an outsized influence in elections. You don't get their votes by preaching to the choir. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/16/opinion/democrats-2020-election-economic-populism.html https://wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote-switchers-in-2018/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/30/why-trumps-plan-to-slash-food-stamps-and-medicaid-could-cost-him-crucial-supporters/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency == topic election 1 ===== impact 40 impactrate 0 likeimpress 3 negative 0 posted 2018-12-17 priority 1 ratio 7 react 10 reactrate 0 shares 1 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 6 title Aim at the middle topic election wordrate 0 words 40 ID 771299143214607 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/771299143214607 audclicks 6 audreach 3 engaged 3 impress 116 likeclickusers 3 likeimpress 3 likeuimpress 62 likeusers 2 likeuusers 49 matchedlinkclicks 2 matchedotherclicks 4 oimpress 116 oreach 70 posted "12/17/2018 06:59:25 AM" postlinkclicks 2 postotherclicks 2 reach 70 sharesimpress 1 sharesusers 1 type Link ========== Another referendum on Trump tomorrow -- Trump will be in Mississippi today campaigning for a Republican who proudly supports Trump 100%. In fact that seems to be her answer for every question - she's found that deviating from that message just gets her into trouble. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/11/26/daily-202-trump-s-rescue-mission-to-mississippi-may-drag-cindy-hyde-smith-across-the-finish-line/5bfb669c1b326b60d128001d == topic election ===== comments 3 hide 1 impact 106 impactrate 0 likeimpress 4 negative 1 posted 2018-11-26 ratio 3 react 22 reactrate 0 shares 1 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 13 title Another referendum on Trump tomorrow -- topic election wordrate 0 words 48 ID 758090784535443 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/758090784535443 audclicks 13 audreach 8 commentsimpress 3 commentsusers 3 engaged 9 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 93 likeclickusers 9 likeimpress 4 likeuimpress 80 likeusers 3 likeuusers 69 matchedlinkclicks 2 matchedotherclicks 11 negclicks 1 negusers 1 oimpress 93 oreach 74 posted "11/26/2018 08:59:31 AM" postlinkclicks 2 postotherclicks 6 reach 74 sharesimpress 1 sharesusers 1 type Link ========== Lessons for Democrats - don't keep preaching to the choir especially if the choir is shrinking! Is the future of the Trumpist party already being written in California? https://calmatters.org/articles/commentary/the-trump-effect-worked-well-for-democrats/ The California Republican party is currently in third place behind unpartied voters, and headed further down rather than up. Even a reliable Trump cheerleader like Mark Thiessen can see where this is going - https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2018/11/20/thiessen-donald-trump-needs-do-avoid-being-one-term-president/2070166002/ Trump's less prescient sycophants indulge his fantasy that there's some deep conspiracy undoing all his good works - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/new-book-by-trump-advisers-calls-out-the-presidents-embedded-enemies/2018/11/24/afcbd0fc-ede3-11e8-baac-2a674e91502b_story.html But Trump being Trump means holding more and more campaign rallies for his shrinking base, leading lock-her-up chants and bragging about the big beautiful wall. Even when the rally is nominally to support somebody else. Trump just can't seem to make the transition from the excitement of campaigning to the hard drudgery of governing. That recalls a Twilight Zone episode from the 1950's - astronauts land on a planet and find that it's actually Heaven - all the departed are there, each frozen for all eternity in the greatest moment of his life - and sure enough, one of them was a politician addressing a cheering campaign rally. The only moving creature there was The Caretaker, who walked around with a little brush dusting everybody off. And Democratic impeachment enthusiasts should consider this - giving President Pence a year to push reactionary legislation through Congress far more skillfully than Trump could imagine, and time to reconcile with former Republicans disgusted with Trumpism, could leave the Republicans in a far stronger position in 2020. And that's a powerful argument against pursuing impeachment prior to the 2020 primary campaign season. == topic election ===== hide 3 impact 650 impactrate 0 likeimpress 1 negative 3 posted 2018-11-25 ratio 2 react 24 reactrate 0 shares 3 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 17 title Lessons for Democrats - don't keep preaching to the choir topic election wordrate 0 words 271 ID 757425467935308 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/757425467935308 audclicks 17 audreach 14 engaged 15 hideclicks 3 hideclicksusers 3 impress 91 likeclickusers 13 likeimpress 1 likeuimpress 71 likeusers 1 likeuusers 56 matchedlinkclicks 5 matchedotherclicks 12 negclicks 3 negusers 3 oimpress 91 oreach 67 posted "11/25/2018 07:47:57 AM" postlinkclicks 5 postotherclicks 10 reach 67 sharesimpress 3 sharesusers 3 type Link ========== MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides? https://www.newsweek.com/mississippi-history-its-best-senator-cindy-hyde-smith-posed-confederate-1225959 Yes, there were some very fine people on the Confederate side - in other ways. But the words of their leaders confirm they were fighting for slavery first and foremost, even when coded as "states rights." Worse, it was a "rich man's war and a poor man's fight" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty_Negro_Law In short, there's really no good reason to impute any heroism to defense of American feudalism. Better to look to the future than to the past. But without the Klan, Nazis, crackpot conspiracy theorists, etc., the Republicans don't have a winning margin in many places. So all Trumpists and most other Republicans never disavow those supporters and always try to subtly encourage them, rather than dishearten them, lest they stay home on election day. Without that winning margin, the Republicans don't control the government, can't enact their billionaire Republican donors' agenda, and won't get any more donations from them. == There's more at https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754717688206086 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 78 hide 3 impact 6270 impactrate 0 likeimpress 46 negative 3 posted 2018-11-23 priority 2 ratio 10 react 380 reactrate 0 shares 16 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 237 title MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides? topic election wordrate 0 words 165 ID 756079351403253 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/756079351403253 audclicks 237 audreach 197 bimpress 4154 blikeimpress 1 blikeusers 1 breach 3076 commentsimpress 78 commentsusers 42 engaged 270 hideclicks 3 hideclicksusers 3 impress 5096 likeclickusers 22 likeimpress 46 likeuimpress 128 likeusers 46 likeuusers 103 matchedlinkclicks 155 matchedotherclicks 82 negclicks 3 negusers 3 oimpress 942 oreach 731 posted "11/23/2018 09:14:23 AM" postlinkclicks 144 postotherclicks 61 reach 3860 sharesimpress 16 sharesusers 15 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides?""" ccleantitle MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides? cclicksall 686 cclickslink 133 ccpcall 0.14577259 ccpclink 0.7518797 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 4154 clicksunique 127 conversionrank - cost 0.75187969924812 cpm 24.07318247 creach 3026 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 16.51420318 ctrlink 3.2017332691382 ecomments 26 ecpclink 0.7518797 ends 2018-11-26 engagedrank - ereact 31 eshares 12 frequency 1.3727693324521 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 133 spent 100 ========== very fine people, on both sides? https://www.newsweek.com/mississippi-history-its-best-senator-cindy-hyde-smith-posed-confederate-1225959 Yes, there were some very fine people on the Confederate side - in other ways. But the words of their leaders confirm they were fighting for slavery first and foremost, even when coded as "states rights." Worse, it was a "rich man's war and a poor man's fight" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty_Negro_Law In short, there's really no good reason to impute any heroism to defense of American feudalism. Better to look to the future than to the past. But without the Klan, Nazis, crackpot conspiracy theorists, etc., the Republicans don't have a winning margin in many places. So all Trumpists and most other Republicans never disavow those supporters and always try to subtly encourage them, rather than dishearten them, lest they stay home on election day. Without that winning margin, the Republicans don't control the government, can't enact their billionaire Republican donors' agenda, and won't get any more donations from them. == There's more at https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754717688206086 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election ===== comments 1 hide 1 impact 242 impactrate 0 likeimpress 5 negative 1 posted 2018-11-23 ratio 4 react 15 reactrate 0 shares 1 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 7 title very fine people, on both sides? topic election wordrate 0 words 161 ID 756039011407287 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/756039011407287 audclicks 7 audreach 6 commentsimpress 1 commentsusers 1 engaged 9 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 75 likeclickusers 9 likeimpress 5 likeuimpress 62 likeusers 5 likeuusers 59 matchedlinkclicks 2 matchedotherclicks 5 negclicks 1 negusers 1 oimpress 75 oreach 65 posted "11/23/2018 07:41:42 AM" postlinkclicks 2 postotherclicks 4 reach 65 sharesimpress 1 sharesusers 1 type Link ========== John Delaney for President? He's already running. https://www.marylandmatters.org/blog/delaneys-presidential-bid-gets-the-george-will-treatment/ https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/us/politics/john-delaney-2020-iowa.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/want-to-topple-trump-take-john-delaney-seriously/2018/11/16/d34346ee-e90d-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html == topic election ===== impact 2 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2018-11-22 ratio 17 react 2 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 2 title John Delaney for President? topic election wordrate 0 words 10 ID 755329861478202 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/755329861478202 audclicks 2 audreach 2 engaged 2 impress 52 likeclickusers 2 likeuimpress 40 likeuusers 33 matchedlinkclicks 1 matchedotherclicks 1 oimpress 52 oreach 34 posted "11/22/2018 06:56:57 AM" postlinkclicks 1 postotherclicks 1 reach 34 type Link ========== Remember the Republicans knew this was coming a year ago https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/12/08/journalists-forget-the-rust-belt-diners-head-for-the-suburban-yoga-classes/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/us/politics/house-control-2018-suburbs-trump-republicans-democrats.html https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/556514674693056 But it's bigger than that now - https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2018/11/19/the-end-of-trump Who's going to make the most of it? https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/11/20/driving-toward-2020-a-pile-up-in-the-left-lane == topic election ===== comments 1 hide 1 impact 22 impactrate 0 likeimpress 1 negative 1 posted 2018-11-21 ratio 5 react 8 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 5 title Remember the Republicans knew this was coming a year ago topic election wordrate 0 words 28 ID 754958818181973 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754958818181973 audclicks 5 audreach 4 commentsimpress 1 commentsusers 1 engaged 4 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 61 likeclickusers 4 likeimpress 1 likeuimpress 47 likeusers 1 likeuusers 37 matchedlinkclicks 2 matchedotherclicks 3 negclicks 1 negusers 1 oimpress 61 oreach 40 posted "11/21/2018 04:42:42 PM" postlinkclicks 2 postotherclicks 3 reach 40 type Link ========== MS runoff - it's not just about Trump The Republican candidate is Trumpier than Trump, saying right out loud what he only hints at. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/walmart-asks-for-contribution-back-from-mississippi-gop-sen-hyde-smith-after-controversial-comments https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/democrat-espy-charges-debate-sen-hyde-smith-s-public-hanging-n938751 == There's more at https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 87 hideall 1 impact 1747 impactrate 0 likeimpress 66 negative 1 posted 2018-11-21 priority 2 ratio 6 react 546 reactrate 0 shares 15 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 377 title MS runoff - it's not just about Trump topic election wordrate 0 words 32 ID 754717688206086 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754717688206086 audclicks 377 audreach 347 bimpress 5122 blikeimpress 1 blikeusers 1 breach 3182 commentsimpress 87 commentsusers 53 engaged 424 hideallclicks 1 hideallclicksusers 1 impress 5901 likeclickusers 9 likeimpress 66 likeuimpress 70 likeusers 64 likeuusers 52 matchedlinkclicks 313 matchedotherclicks 64 negclicks 1 negusers 1 oimpress 779 oreach 581 posted "11/21/2018 07:33:21 AM" postlinkclicks 299 postotherclicks 53 reach 3672 sharesimpress 15 sharesusers 13 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""MS runoff - it's not just about Trump""" ccleantitle MS runoff - it's not just about Trump cclicksall 842 cclickslink 301 ccpcall 0.11876485 ccpclink 0.33222591 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 5122 clicksunique 287 conversionrank - cost 0.33222591362126 cpm 19.52362358 creach 3121 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 16.43889106 ctrlink 5.8766106989457 ecomments 37 ecpclink 0.33222591 ends 2018-11-26 engagedrank - ereact 43 eshares 13 frequency 1.6411406600449 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 301 spent 100 ========== Evolution of Republican Identity - for MS runoff voters Be sure to vote on November 27! The whole world is watching. == Why were these Republicans voting for Democrats? https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/politics/chesley-sullenberger-washington-post-op-ed/index.html https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-against-every-single-republican-columnist-urges-senate-candidates-dodge-on-trumps-birthright-citizenship-plan-2018-11-01 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/394377-george-will-is-right-vote-the-gop-out https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/08/10/you-cant-save-the-gop-by-electing-republican-senators/ They hold many traditional conservative Republican points of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but they are voting Democratic this time. What happens to them after the election? They'll have to decide based on the results of the election and how the remaining Republicans react to those results. If the GOP decides that it lost the House because it wasn't Trumpist enough, then it will be truly a lost cause. Democrats will continue to figure out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and then Trump. The Democrats will be glad to leave the racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists, so they can follow the path of the American Independent Party to oblivion - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party == The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic again - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency This constituency is desperate - for something to be hopeful about. But it sounds like the change that they are hoping for can't come from Trumpists. Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican constituency is getting driven away - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency This constituency is disgusted. What about that other Trump constituency that comes to his campaign rallies - even though they're either two years late or two years early. They're with Trump forever, because nobody else will will admit to wanting them - http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency Trump accepts the second constituency's unconditional love at his campaign rallies, which Trump craves like a junkie his junk. In return he offers them all the words and chants they want. And not much else. In fact, probably less... Consider the history of the social safety net. Social security - Republicans mostly voted in favor - https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html Medicare - Republicans opposed in the Senate, split in the House - https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally65.html Obamacare - No Republican votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Legislative_history even though it was based on Mitt Romney's popular Masscare - http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44854320/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/white-house-used-mitt-romney-health-care-law-blueprint-federal-law If you want to see how it adds up - https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_budget_detail_2017bs22017n_0010 Seeing how it adds up, McConnell's regretfully come to a sad conclusion - we'll have to reduce the social safety net to pay for billionaire tax cuts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-entitlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits But he wants the Democrats to take the lead on fiscal responsibility because the Trumpists reject the notion out of hand. But wait, there's more! According to Trump advisor Kudlow, a minimum wage is a terrible idea, when we could be passing more billionaire tax cuts instead - https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/larry-kudlow-federal-minimum-wage_us_5bdb1c94e4b0da7bfc17d59a == So how did we get here? Consider the evolution of the Republican Party - from liberation to identity politics. The Republican Party defeated the Confederacy, freed the slaves, and then got stuck in the House trying to decide the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876. So the Corrupt Bargain was struck - the Republican Hayes became President, and withdrew Federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction and giving the unrepentant southern Democrats a free hand for 80 years - https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317 until the Supreme Court finally struck down "separate but equal" and the Republican President Eisenhower enforced it with Federal troops - http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/eisenhower/aa_eisenhower_littlerock_1.html leading to founding of the John Birch Society with their "Impeach Earl Warren" campaign and claims that Eisenhower was a Communist traitor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society Goldwater and William Buckley and many other Republican leaders kept their distance from the Birchers, and in 1964 Goldwater lost by a landslide to LBJ. Goldwater was too far right, but of course the lunatic fringe thought he was not far right ENOUGH. But Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965 and that encouraged many Dixiecrats to abandon the Democratic Party, led by Strom Thurmond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_who_switched_parties and Albert Watson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties Their racism made many traditional Republicans nervous, but Richard Nixon had been rebuilding a political organization for another run for President. Nixon realized that, properly handled, the former Dixiecrats were an asset rather than a liability. According to Haldeman, "Nixon emphasized that you have to face the fact that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to devise a system that recognized this while not appearing to." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy Although the RNC chair apologized for the Southern Strategy in 2005, he was speaking too soon. In 2009, Obama was elected President, and the Tea Party was born https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement Since Obama's politics were not much different from Bill Clinton's, it's hard to escape the conclusion that racism was an important factor in the rise of the Tea Party. It was not explicitly racist, but it was part of the oppose-Obama-on-everything movement within the Republican party https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311 which certainly appealed to all the racists. Trump's great insight was that by signaling (subtly at first, blatantly later) to the racists and and anti-semites and fascists, they'd stick with him forever, and by other means he could also attract the Obama voters who were hoping for a change for the better. Of course, the reason there hadn't been as much change for the better as hoped, is that the Republicans were blocking Obama on everything. Even so, Obamacare passed and the economy as a whole has been recovering since 2009. But the Republicans cleverly convinced enough voters that they were against Obamacare, even though polls asking about any specific aspect of Obamacare, but without mentioning "Obamacare", such as affordable coverage for pre-existing conditions, found quite widespread support. Trump could easily promise to repeal Obamacare and come up with better coverage for more people at lower cost. And while the economy as a whole has been recovering, the recovery has been uneven, especially in industries undone by technological advance or their environmental costs. Trump could easily promise to turn back the tide of technology and and the tide of rising oceans and environmental degradation. And that's how Trump barely won. Since then he has done a great job of keeping the racists, anti-semites, fascists, and anti-intellectuals in his camp, but those who had voted for Obama and then Trump have noticed that he hasn't really done anything for them after all. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency So now he has to create distractions of foreign menace of impoverished peasant invasions, and somehow avoid the distractions of domestic menace by his hard-core followers who took him too literally and too seriously. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2018/10/31/george-soros-and-migrant-caravan-how-lie-multiplied-online/1824633002/ https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/03/the-republican-party-and-white-identity But sticking too close to his white-identity-politics hard-core base may be his undoing. Cults of personality have not lasted long in American politics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality The Trumpist Party has no fixed ideology beyond the whims and prejudices of the leader, who owes nothing to the past or to the future, but mutually supports and abets other personality cults all over the world. Don't like it? The 2018 election is a national referendum on ideas vs personality cults. For this one specific moment in history, voters interested in ideas need to vote for ideas and against personality cults. That means in almost every instance, a vote for Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying home because it doesn't matter - is a vote for personality cults. An astonishing number of House and even Senate seats and Governorships are too close too call this year - meaning individual votes count as never before. In almost every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective vote against personality cults is to vote Democratic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality America was founded on ideas rather than personalities- We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. A new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. Traditional Republicans who think of themselves as part of the party of Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt should think about what it means when a party of ideas becomes a personality cult - which is the tendency of populist and fascist movements. == A president who wants to build a legacy needs a tent large enough to weather various kinds of crises among sub-constituencies. Trump seems uninterested and unable to do so. He's indeed a great disrupter, as claimed, but not a great builder, which also was claimed. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/trump-is-still-blaming-the-far-left-media-for-americas-divisiveness/ The nation will recover eventually, as it has from other fundamental crises. The outlook for the Republican Party is not so certain, and recalls the fate of the Whigs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Decline The Republicans might split into a hard-core identitarian Trumpist party and one espousing more traditional Republican values. Hard to guess which one will retain the Republican name! Trump certainly likes to see his name in gold on everything he touches. It would be good for the Republicans to finally excise their cancer of racism, anti-semitism, and fascism. After years of berating the Democrats for identity politics, it's time for the Republicans to take the same medicine. The Democrats could go the same factional route if success went to their heads and they got too far ahead of the middle of the electorate. That might eventually lead to a new majority coalition in the middle for a while. If the Democrats are smart, they will become the new majority coalition somewhat left of the middle, far enough left to have ideals and goals, yet close enough to the middle and the left to keep both in the tent. No small task. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative == Title: The case against Trump: character Trump might be impeached in the new House but not convicted in the Senate. It's hard to imagine what new high crimes and misdemeanors could be so shocking, compared to what we already know, that they would change the minds of 15-20 Republican Senators necessary for conviction amd removal, who have already fully committed to Trump - and would thus admit that they were either fools or co-conspirators all along. Of course, as self-serving opportunists like Trump, they'd turn on him overnight if they thought it in their interest. There is no love lost between them; he's insulted them all at one point or another. But Fox is there to make sure they don't flip on Trump. John Dean says Nixon might have survived if Fox had been there to protect him - https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/02/john-dean-nixon-might-have-survived-if-thered-been-a-fox-news-216207 Likewise it's hard to imagine Pence and the Trump cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment - that would tell as much about them as about Trump. The case against Trump - and by extension his enablers - comes down to something more serious - CHARACTER. 1) Trump is a salesman first and foremost. He tells his supporters what they want to hear and what he wants them to hear, not what they need to hear. Would you buy a used car, a penny stock, a cable or cell phone plan based on Trump's promises? Trust him alone with your daughter? 2) Trump addresses the feelings of his supporters by telling the truth about his own feelings. The only truth he cares about is the truth of his feelings. Like other authoritarians and would-be authoritarians, he rejects out of hand the idea that there is an external objective reality against which his feelings might be compared. He never admits to being wrong and never apologizes for mistakes, which means he never learns anything, even when he changes course 180 degrees. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46061646 3) Trump can't move beyond his shrinking base and doesn't even want to. He'd much rather have an exciting rally with his permanent supporters than reach out to former supporters and potential supporters. He's not interested in the widest possible Republican tent, only the most enthusiastic Trumpist tent. That means, to support their continuing minority rule, the rest of the Republicans have to double down on voter suppression, gerrymandering, big dark campaign money, and creating a politicized Federal judiciary to support those efforts. 4) Trump promises his supporters one thing and delivers another. His talking points are for the forgotten Americans, but his actions are for the billionaire Republican donors, on deregulation relief, taxation relief, and immigration non-reform. He talked about e-verify on the campaign trail but dropped it when he learned how his donors feel. He imposes tariffs that transfer wealth from one set of Americans to another more favored one - that's called Welfare. And whatever happened to the massive infrastructure plan that the Democrats were so eager to cooperate on? 5) Trump recognizes no debt to the past or to his predecessors, nor to the future or his successors. "One sows and another reaps" - Trump takes credit for the economic recovery begun in 2009 against all Republican obstacles. Does anybody believe he will accept any responsibility for the inevitable recession that follows every recovery, or for the inflation caused by deficit spending at the top of a recovery, or for the debt service cost later? Not his problem as long as it happens after 2020. 6) Trump attracts self-serving opportunists to government service. A self-serving opportunist at the top sets the tone all the way down. He can't keep up with the pressure to fill appointed positions, or to refill positions vacated by his cronies who just can't seem to master government ethics, or just don't care, or expect to be pardoned if caught. 7) Trump claims that there's nothing to be learned from his tax returns or audited financials or investigation of his campaign's Russian contacts. And so he refuses to release any information about his financials and threatens to shut down Mueller's investigation - just what one would expect if there IS something to be learned. In contrast, Mike Pence's tax returns have been public since before the 2016 election and, sure enough, there is nothing to learn and nothing to talk about there. == What happens after the election? 1) There will be even more reorg than usual in the Trump administration. Anybody that has thwarted his impulses is apt to be relieved of their duties, starting with Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller. 2) The final results of the Mueller investigation will probably come to light anyway, with more indictments for Trump campaigners - Roger Stone looks like a particularly good bet. Trump might respond that they had little role or none in his campaign, but might pardon any of them that can keep their mouths shut. 3) Most interesting is whether anything comes of the income and estate tax investigations by New York state and New York city. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/us/politics/donald-trump-fred-trump-tax-schemes.html The New York Times reported criminally fraudulent behavior in the estate planning of Fred Trump for his heirs. The Federal criminal statute of limitations has expired for that time period, but New York law for criminal and civil investigations might be different, and the same threads might be followed into more recent years for which the statute of limitations has not expired. Trump might respond that his lawyers and accountants were responsible, not him, but he can't pardon them for civil matters nor state criminal offenses. == As for the future, there are a lot of structural reforms needed - getting dark money out of politics, encouraging voter registration and turnout instead of suppressing, ending gerrymandering, adopting ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, changing the way Congress runs itself - that will increase voter choices by making independent and ideological candidates more feasible. https://www.fairvote.org/ https://www.nolabels.org/ https://www.uniteamerica.org/ http://www.americanpromise.net/ But those efforts will take years to come to fruition. Now is the time for short-term action. == There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 16 hide 1 impact 84062 impactrate 1 likeimpress 81 negative 1 posted 2018-11-18 priority 2 ratio 7 react 332 reactrate 0 shares 25 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 209 title Evolution of Republican Identity - for MS runoff voters topic election wordrate 0 words 2532 ID 753202291690959 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959 audclicks 209 audreach 181 bimpress 4266 breach 2019 commentsimpress 16 commentsusers 11 engaged 241 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 5001 likeclickusers 8 likeimpress 81 likeuimpress 62 likeusers 78 likeuusers 43 matchedlinkclicks 186 matchedotherclicks 23 negclicks 1 negusers 1 oimpress 735 oreach 535 posted "11/18/2018 02:55:22 PM" postlinkclicks 163 postotherclicks 21 reach 2573 sharesimpress 25 sharesusers 23 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""Evolution of Republican Identity - for MS runoff...""" ccleantitle Evolution of Republican Identity - for MS runoff cclicksall 511 cclickslink 182 ccpcall 0.19569472 ccpclink 0.54945055 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 4266 clicksunique 157 conversionrank - cost 0.54945054945055 cpm 23.44116268 creach 2052 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 11.97843413 ctrlink 4.2662916080638 ecomments 9 ecpclink 0.54945055 ends 2018-11-26 engagedrank - ereact 55 eshares 17 frequency 2.0789473684211 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 182 spent 100 ========== Words from Washington to McCain -for MS runoff voters Be sure to vote on November 27! The whole world is watching. == John McCain https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/08/27/mccain-letter-final-words-americas-politics-and-partisanship/1112268002/ We are citizens of the world's greatest republic, a nation of ideals, not blood and soil. We are blessed and are a blessing to humanity when we uphold and advance those ideals at home and in the world. == Katharine Lee Bates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_the_Beautiful O beautiful for spacious skies, For amber waves of grain, For purple mountain majesties Above the fruited plain! America! America! God shed His grace on thee And crown thy good with brotherhood From sea to shining sea! O beautiful for pilgrim feet, Whose stern, impassioned stress A thoroughfare for freedom beat Across the wilderness! America! America! God mend thine every flaw, Confirm thy soul in self-control, Thy liberty in law! O beautiful for heroes proved In liberating strife, Who more than self their country loved And mercy more than life! America! America! May God thy gold refine, Till all success be nobleness, And every gain divine! O beautiful for patriot dream That sees beyond the years Thine alabaster cities gleam Undimmed by human tears! America! America! God shed His grace on thee And crown thy good with brotherhood From sea to shining sea! === William Jennings Bryan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that, if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them... You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold. But there are other ideas of populism, though - https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2018/11/01/no-minimum-wage-increases-anywhere-says-trump-advisor-corporate-tax-cuts-are-enough/#29cd38de4351 https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tax-cuts-rich-americans-republicans-1133372 https://www.stltoday.com/opinion/editorial/editorial-predictably-republicans-hint-that-tax-plan-deficit-justifies-entitlement/article_a5e74a11-49aa-51e0-a8e0-9d6ee7859732.html == Josiah Gilbert Holland http://www.theotherpages.org/poems/holland1.html GOD, give us men! A time like this demands Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands; Men whom the lust of office does not kill; Men whom the spoils of office can not buy; Men who possess opinions and a will; Men who have honor; men who will not lie; Men who can stand before a demagogue And damn his treacherous flatteries without winking! Tall men, sun-crowned, who live above the fog In public duty, and in private thinking; For while the rabble, with their thumb-worn creeds, Their large professions and their little deeds, Mingle in selfish strife, lo! Freedom weeps, Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps. == George Washington https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Washington%27s_Farewell_Address It is important, likewise, that the habits of thinking in a free country should inspire caution, in those intrusted with its administration, to confine themselves within their respective constitutional spheres, avoiding in the exercise of the powers of one department to encroach upon another. The spirit of encroachment tends to consolidate the powers of all the departments in one, and thus to create, whatever the form of government, a real despotism. A just estimate of that love of power, and proneness to abuse it, which predominates in the human heart, is sufficient to satisfy us of the truth of this position. The necessity of reciprocal checks in the exercise of political power, by dividing and distributing it into different depositories, and constituting each the Guardian of the Public Weal against invasions by the others, has been evinced by experiments ancient and modern; some of them in our country and under our own eyes. To preserve them must be as necessary as to institute them. If, in the opinion of the people, the distribution or modification of the constitutional powers be in any particular wrong, let it be corrected by an amendment in the way, which the constitution designates. But let there be no change by usurpation; for, though this, in one instance, may be the instrument of good, it is the customary weapon by which free governments are destroyed. The precedent must always greatly overbalance in permanent evil any partial or transient benefit, which the use can at any time yield. But there are other ideas of executive power - https://www.axios.com/trump-birthright-citizenship-executive-order-0cf4285a-16c6-48f2-a933-bd71fd72ea82.html == So how are you going to vote? There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 51 hideall 1 impact 25723 impactrate 0 likeimpress 69 negative 1 posted 2018-11-18 priority 2 ratio 7 react 368 reactrate 0 shares 20 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 227 title Words from Washington to McCain -for MS runoff voters topic election wordrate 0 words 699 ID 753165165028005 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005 audclicks 227 audreach 195 bimpress 3708 blikeimpress 1 blikeusers 1 breach 2152 commentsimpress 51 commentsusers 27 engaged 263 hideallclicks 1 hideallclicksusers 1 impress 4422 likeclickusers 12 likeimpress 69 likeuimpress 94 likeusers 67 likeuusers 78 matchedlinkclicks 183 matchedotherclicks 44 negclicks 1 negusers 1 oimpress 714 oreach 546 posted "11/18/2018 01:50:46 PM" postlinkclicks 169 postotherclicks 34 reach 2623 sharesimpress 20 sharesusers 18 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""Words from Washington to McCain -for MS runoff...""" ccleantitle Words from Washington to McCain -for MS runoff cclicksall 553 cclickslink 178 ccpcall 0.18083183 ccpclink 0.56179775 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 3708 clicksunique 159 conversionrank - cost 0.56179775280899 cpm 26.96871629 creach 2154 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 14.91370011 ctrlink 4.8004314994606 ecomments 15 ecpclink 0.56179775 ends 2018-11-26 engagedrank - ereact 48 eshares 18 frequency 1.7214484679666 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 178 spent 100 ========== Pelosi and McCarthy - good for California? It seems doubtful that there will be any special benefit for California if two of its representatives were the party leaders in Congress. That's about as likely as high speed rail ever getting finished between San Francisco and Bakersfield. But similar in this way - if it ever DID happen, people would say why didn't they do this sooner. https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2018/11/02/nancy-pelosi-kevin-mccarthy-california-house-leader-bakersfield-san-francisco/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/11/04/dont-tell-bay-area-voters-this-is-no-battleground-anger-and-enthusiasm-near-all-time-highs/ == topic election ===== impact 7 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2018-11-06 ratio 27 react 1 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 1 title Pelosi and McCarthy - good for California? topic election wordrate 0 words 69 ID 745849632426225 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/745849632426225 audclicks 1 audreach 1 engaged 1 impress 47 likeclickusers 1 likeuimpress 32 likeuusers 24 matchedotherclicks 1 oimpress 47 oreach 27 posted "11/06/2018 07:32:30 AM" postotherclicks 1 reach 27 type Link ========== There is no immigration strategy in the middle https://www.voanews.com/a/comprehensive-us-immigration-reform-elusive/4332393.html Trying to reduce illegal immigration in the middle is at best a tactical move and at worst a strategic blunder, by making it more difficult and hence more profitable for organized crime. == One way to reduce illegal immigration AT THE SOURCE is to improve economic conditions and political conditions at the source. That's what public foreign aid is for. Instead the Trumpists want to cut what little there is - except probably that spent on military assistance that supports corrupt regimes. Foreign non-military aid is much less expensive than building a wall or deploying the army to the border - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45933845 Even more expensive than a wall is sending in the Marines to troubled countries , which was done repeatedly and ineffectively for many years and finally led to FDR's Good Neighbor Policy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Neighbor_policy Improving economic and political conditions is also what private foreign aid is for. Instead the Trumpists vilify the Soros Open Society Foundation - https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/press-releases/guatemala-must-continue-its-commitment-combat-corruption-and-impunity https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/about/programs/latin-america-program == One way to reduce illegal immigration AT THE DESTINATION is to require e-verify for everbody, starting with all the employees of the Trump organizations and Trump licensees. https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/12/politics/daca-e-verify-internal-enforcement/index.html But that's a non-starter in Congress; it would damage American agriculture, the hospitality business, and many other industries which depend on exploitable cheap labor. == In short, the Trump administration has no long-term strategy, only election-year tactics, that raise the question of whether they really want to solve the problem with comprehensive immigration reform. https://www.voanews.com/a/comprehensive-us-immigration-reform-elusive/4332393.html In the even longer term, all the Western democracies have to import labor at all skill levels to maintain their standard of living with the declining birth rate that's common to all advanced economies, where children are expensive liabilities rather than valuable labor assets. http://www.liberty-and-justice.net/ == There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 107 hide 1 hideall 2 impact 11691 impactrate 0 likeimpress 70 negative 3 posted 2018-11-05 priority 2 ratio 14 react 391 reactrate 0 shares 21 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 190 title There is no immigration strategy in the middle topic election wordrate 0 words 299 ID 745363152474873 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/745363152474873 audclicks 207 audreach 186 bimpress 6332 blikeimpress 6 blikeusers 6 breach 5489 commentsimpress 107 commentsusers 67 engaged 310 hideallclicks 2 hideallclicksusers 2 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 6741 likeclickusers 7 likeimpress 70 likeuimpress 82 likeusers 68 likeuusers 65 matchedlinkclicks 164 matchedotherclicks 26 negclicks 3 negusers 3 oimpress 409 oreach 319 posted "11/05/2018 10:18:57 AM" postlinkclicks 154 postotherclicks 20 reach 5694 sharesimpress 21 sharesusers 20 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""There is no immigration strategy in the middle""" ccleantitle There is no immigration strategy in the middle cclicksall 841 cclickslink 173 ccpcall 0.11890606 ccpclink 0.57803468 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 6332 clicksunique 165 conversionrank - cost 0.57803468208092 cpm 15.79279848 creach 5366 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 13.28174352 ctrlink 2.7321541377132 ecomments 40 ecpclink 0.57803468 ends 2018-11-06 engagedrank - ereact 47 eshares 10 frequency 1.1800223630265 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 173 spent 100 ========== A Cross of Gilt https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2018/11/01/no-minimum-wage-increases-anywhere-says-trump-advisor-corporate-tax-cuts-are-enough/#29cd38de4351 https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tax-cuts-rich-americans-republicans-1133372 https://www.stltoday.com/opinion/editorial/editorial-predictably-republicans-hint-that-tax-plan-deficit-justifies-entitlement/article_a5e74a11-49aa-51e0-a8e0-9d6ee7859732.html That's the Trumpist idea of populist government. == Not all populists are the same, though - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/sunday/the-democrats-next-job-bury-supply-side-economics.html William Jennings Bryan - There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that, if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them... You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech == So how are you going to vote? Trickle down or trickle up? There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 28 impact 6553 impactrate 0 likeimpress 89 negative 0 posted 2018-11-05 priority 2 ratio 15 react 516 reactrate 0 shares 46 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 353 title A Cross of Gilt topic election wordrate 0 words 127 ID 745336589144196 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/745336589144196 audclicks 743 audreach 672 bimpress 7696 breach 7040 commentsimpress 28 commentsusers 21 engaged 753 impress 8657 likeclickusers 36 likeimpress 89 likeuimpress 180 likeusers 89 likeuusers 134 matchedlinkclicks 296 matchedotherclicks 57 oimpress 961 oreach 730 posted "11/05/2018 09:11:57 AM" postlinkclicks 285 postotherclicks 32 reach 7779 sharesimpress 46 sharesusers 42 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""A Cross of Gilt""" ccleantitle A Cross of Gilt cclicksall 1010 cclickslink 644 ccpcall 0.0990099 ccpclink 0.1552795 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 7696 clicksunique 635 conversionrank - cost 0.15527950310559 cpm 12.99376299 creach 7018 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 13.12370062 ctrlink 8.3679833679834 ecomments 12 ecpclink 0.1552795 ends 2018-11-06 engagedrank - ereact 40 eshares 23 frequency 1.0966087204332 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 644 spent 100 ========== Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps GOD, give us men! A time like this demands Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands; Men whom the lust of office does not kill; Men whom the spoils of office can not buy; Men who possess opinions and a will; Men who have honor; men who will not lie; Men who can stand before a demagogue And damn his treacherous flatteries without winking! Tall men, sun-crowned, who live above the fog In public duty, and in private thinking; For while the rabble, with their thumb-worn creeds, Their large professions and their little deeds, Mingle in selfish strife, lo! Freedom weeps, Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps. Josiah Gilbert Holland http://www.theotherpages.org/poems/holland1.html == Things haven't changed that much. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josiah_Gilbert_Holland How are you going to vote? There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 14 hide 1 impact 3384 impactrate 0 likeimpress 73 negative 2 posted 2018-11-05 priority 2 ratio 38 react 240 reactrate 0 shares 37 sharesrate 0 spam 1 sumclicks 114 title Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps topic election wordrate 0 words 141 ID 745276029150252 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/745276029150252 audclicks 123 audreach 111 bimpress 9180 blikeimpress 10 blikeusers 8 breach 8473 commentsimpress 14 commentsusers 12 engaged 202 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 9988 likeclickusers 9 likeimpress 73 likeuimpress 83 likeusers 72 likeuusers 69 matchedlinkclicks 75 matchedotherclicks 39 negclicks 2 negusers 2 oimpress 808 oreach 621 posted "11/05/2018 06:46:37 AM" postlinkclicks 75 postotherclicks 30 reach 9185 sharesimpress 37 sharesusers 35 spamclicks 1 spamclicksusers 1 type Link budget 100 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps""" ccleantitle Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps cclicksall 575 cclickslink 84 ccpcall 0.17389565 ccpclink 1.19035714 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 9180 clicksunique 84 conversionrank - cost 1.1903571428571 cpm 10.89215686 creach 8588 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 6.26361656 ctrlink 0.91503267973856 ecomments 9 ecpclink 1.19035714 ends 2018-11-06 engagedrank - ereact 60 eshares 31 frequency 1.0689333954355 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 84 spent 99.99 ========== Should leaders be role models for youth? If celebrity entertainers and athletes think they can get away with anything, they'll carry the same mindset if they should happen to be elected to high office. Now a bomber has asserted a modern version of the mythical Dan White Twinkie Defense - who else is going to try that? https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN1N50TY-OZATP It's even gone international - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/nigerian-army-donald-trump-shia-muslim-islamic-movement-migrant-caravan-shooting-a8615281.html 50 years ago, polls showed that most American women would like it if their sons became President, but most American women would not like it if their sons became politicians. Those moms were unclear on the concept of the President's jobs. Even so, one wonders how many women would like their sons to grow up to be just like Trump. Some at least - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/us/politics/trump-women.html == The midterm election is a referendum on Trump He says so himself - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/midterms-are-referendum-trump-he-s-embracing-it-n920086 == Trump always tells the truth - when he can He says so himself - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wall-people-trump-defends-military-presence-border/story?id=58878290 Must be the mainstream media that are forcing him to lie constantly - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/republican-party-lies.html == Trump's genius is focusing on problems with no simple solutions Those kinds of problems will still be around next year and in 2020. That's one kind of recycling he endorses! The last thing he'd want to do is solve them, if he knew how. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/democrats-midterms-winning-trump.html Republicans in contested elections want him to talk about the economy. Trump will have none of it. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/immigration-economy-republicans-trump-midterms.html Perhaps he's aware that a recession is overdue and he wants to keep the conversation focussed elsewhere. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/upshot/the-job-market-is-firing-on-all-cylinders-three-questions-will-determine-how-long-it-can-last.html Perhaps he understands that income inequality breeds resentment and racism. From that point of view, maintaining or even exacerbating income inequality feeds his larger purpose. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/trump-voters-inequality-racism.html == Who needs a caravan right now? The Trumpists have discarded their losing talking points about repealing Obamacare and billionaire tax cuts in favor of creating hysteria about illegal immigration - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/us/politics/republicans-house-races-caravan-voters.html But as usual, the Trumpists only want to talk about illegal immigration, they don't really want to do anything about it. Their politicians need the issue, and their donors need the supply of cheap exploitable labor to do jobs that Americans won't touch at the wages they want to pay, especially with full employment. So they block any actual solutions, whether bipartisan efforts at comprehensive immigration reform at home, or aid to the the troubled countries whence the migrants flee. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/columnists/michael-smolens/sd-me-smolens-immigration-20180627-story.html So who really has a vested interest in promoting publicity about immigrant caravans? They've been going on for a while - as protection against criminals and corrupt cops along the way - but they weren't such a big deal until Trump gave them worldwide publicity and actually ended up encouraging them. And if anybody actually were paying migrants to participate - wouldn't it be somebody with an interest is having a big show right before the election? Some dirty trickster, some foreign power with an interest in promoting Trumpism and disruption? https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/roger-stone-trump-campaign-mueller-wikileaks.html "Luck comes to the skillful" - and just like the DNC emails, Trump always seems to get lucky help just when he needs it - leaving only the question of who provides the skill. == Why are several prominent Republicans voting Democratic this time? https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/413756-pilot-sully-sullenberger-this-is-not-the-america-i-know-and https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/books/review/max-boot-the-corrosion-of-conservatism.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/opinion/never-trump-republicans-midterms-democrats.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/opinion/sunday/congress-republicans-democrats-conservatives.html The statements by Max Boot, Michael Gerson, Chesley Sullenberger, and George Will may be found in the Washington Post opinions and blogs/post-partisan sections, or linked from https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743068179371037 They hold many traditional conservative Republican points of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but they are voting Democratic this time. What happens to them after the election? They'll have to decide based on the results of the election and how the remaining Republicans react to those results. If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that it lost because it wasn't Trumpy enough, then it will be truly a lost cause. Democrats will continue to figure out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and then Trump. The Democrats will be glad to leave the racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists. They can follow the path of the American Independent Party to oblivion - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party == How did the GOP fall into this dark hole? https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/destroy-the-republican-party-max-boot-calls-for-a-clean-start/ It's actually older than Nixon's Southern Strategy. The Democrats traded the racists to the Republicans in 1964. LBJ got the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965 ( but see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelby_County_v._Holder ) The Republicans got Strom Thurmond, Jesse Helms, Albert Watson, and their supporters and, in the fullness of time, they've gotten David Duke, Richard Spencer, and Alex Jones. These guys never wavered in the Trump support from the beginning to the end - thea know Trump is really with them and glad to have them on board. Other Republicans have wavered in their Trumpiness, at least at first. == Still believe in leaders as character role models? The 2018 election is a national referendum on leadership character, among other things. For this one specific moment in history, voters interested in character need to vote for character. That means in almost every instance, a vote for Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying home because it doesn't matter - is a vote that character doesn't matter. An astonishing number of House and even Senate seats and Governorships are too close too call this year - meaning individual votes count as never before. In almost every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective vote for character is to vote Democratic. Are your favorite candidates role models for youth? Does those candidates consider Trump to be a role model for youth? Third party affiliation in a two-party system is a self-indulgent luxury - http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#registration The fix to that is electoral reforms that enable third parties and independents to gain traction - ranked-choice voting and multimember districts - https://www.fairvote.org/ Maybe someday a conservative-progressive or progressive-conservative party will gain such traction - http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative == There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 315 hideall 3 impact 235996 impactrate 2 likeimpress 282 negative 5 posted 2018-11-04 priority 2 ratio 7 react 2466 reactrate 0 shares 62 sharesrate 0 spam 2 sumclicks 1802 title Should leaders be role models for youth? topic election wordrate 0 words 957 ID 744858812525307 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/744858812525307 audclicks 1842 audreach 1709 bimpress 22791 blikeimpress 15 blikeusers 12 breach 17220 commentsimpress 315 commentsusers 153 engaged 1998 hideallclicks 3 hideallclicksusers 3 impress 24733 likeclickusers 23 likeimpress 282 likeuimpress 170 likeusers 273 likeuusers 115 matchedlinkclicks 1674 matchedotherclicks 128 negclicks 5 negusers 5 oimpress 1942 oreach 1426 posted "11/04/2018 01:44:59 PM" postlinkclicks 1604 postotherclicks 86 reach 18570 sharesimpress 62 sharesusers 62 spamclicks 2 spamclicksusers 2 type Link budget 400 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""Should leaders be role models for youth?""" ccleantitle Should leaders be role models for youth? cclicksall 5052 cclickslink 1635 ccpcall 0.07917656 ccpclink 0.24464832 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 22791 clicksunique 1576 conversionrank - cost 0.24464831804281 cpm 17.55078759 creach 16992 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 22.16664473 ctrlink 7.1738844280637 ecomments 94 ecpclink 0.24464832 ends 2018-11-06 engagedrank - ereact 204 eshares 46 frequency 1.3412782485876 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 1635 spent 400 ========== Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? They hold many traditional conservative Republican points of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but they are voting Democratic this time. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/miracle-on-the-hudson-pilot-comes-out-against-gop-this-is-not-the-america-i-love https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-against-every-single-republican-columnist-urges-senate-candidates-dodge-on-trumps-birthright-citizenship-plan-2018-11-01 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/394377-george-will-is-right-vote-the-gop-out https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/08/10/you-cant-save-the-gop-by-electing-republican-senators/ What happens to them after the election? They'll have to decide based on the results of the election and how the remaining Republicans react to those results. If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that it lost because it wasn't Trumpist enough, then it will be truly a lost cause. Democrats will continue to figure out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and then Trump. The Democrats will be glad to leave the racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists, so they can follow the path of the American Independent Party to oblivion - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party So how are you going to vote? == The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic again - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency This constituency is desperate - for something to be hopeful about. But it sounds like the change that they are hoping for can't come from Trumpists. Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican constituency is getting driven away - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency This constituency is disgusted. What about that other Trump constituency that comes to his campaign rallies - even though they're either two years late or two years early. They're with Trump forever, because nobody else will will admit to wanting them - http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency Trump accepts the second constituency's unconditional love at his campaign rallies, which Trump craves like a junkie his junk. In return he offers them all the words and chants they want. And not much else. In fact, probably less... Consider the history of the social safety net. Social security - Republicans mostly voted in favor - https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html Medicare - Republicans opposed in the Senate, split in the House - https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally65.html Obamacare - No Republican votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Legislative_history even though it was based on Mitt Romney's popular Masscare - http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44854320/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/white-house-used-mitt-romney-health-care-law-blueprint-federal-law If you want to see how it adds up - https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_budget_detail_2017bs22017n_0010 Seeing how it adds up, McConnell's regretfully come to a sad conclusion - we'll have to reduce the social safety net to pay for billionaire tax cuts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-entitlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits But he wants the Democrats to take the lead on fiscal responsibility because the Trumpists reject the notion out of hand. But wait, there's more! According to Trump advisor Kudlow, a minimum wage is a terrible idea, when we could be passing more billionaire tax cuts instead - https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/larry-kudlow-federal-minimum-wage_us_5bdb1c94e4b0da7bfc17d59a == So how did we get here? Consider the evolution of the Republican Party - from liberation to identity politics. The Republican Party defeated the Confederacy, freed the slaves, and then got stuck in the House trying to decide the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876. So the Corrupt Bargain was struck - the Republican Hayes became President, and withdrew Federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction and giving the unrepentant southern Democrats a free hand for 80 years - https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317 until the Supreme Court finally struck down "separate but equal" and the Republican President Eisenhower enforced it with Federal troops - http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/eisenhower/aa_eisenhower_littlerock_1.html leading to founding of the John Birch Society with their "Impeach Earl Warren" campaign and claims that Eisenhower was a Communist traitor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society Goldwater and William Buckley and many other Republican leaders kept their distance from the Birchers, and in 1964 Goldwater lost by a landslide to LBJ. Goldwater was too far right, but of course the lunatic fringe thought he was not far right ENOUGH. But Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965 and that encouraged many Dixiecrats to abandon the Democratic Party, led by Strom Thurmond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_who_switched_parties and Albert Watson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties Their racism made many traditional Republicans nervous, but Richard Nixon had been rebuilding a political organization for another run for President. Nixon realized that, properly handled, the former Dixiecrats were an asset rather than a liability. According to Haldeman, "Nixon emphasized that you have to face the fact that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to devise a system that recognized this while not appearing to." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy Although the RNC chair apologized for the Southern Strategy in 2005, he was speaking too soon. In 2009, Obama was elected President, and the Tea Party was born https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement Since Obama's politics were not much different from Bill Clinton's, it's hard to escape the conclusion that racism was an important factor in the rise of the Tea Party. It was not explicitly racist, but it was part of the oppose-Obama-on-everything movement within the Republican party https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311 which certainly appealed to all the racists. Trump's great insight was that by signaling (subtly at first, blatantly later) to the racists and and anti-semites and fascists, they'd stick with him forever, and by other means he could also attract the Obama voters who were hoping for a change for the better. Of course, the reason there hadn't been as much change for the better as hoped, is that the Republicans were blocking Obama on everything. Even so, Obamacare passed and the economy as a whole has been recovering since 2009. But the Republicans cleverly convinced enough voters that they were against Obamacare, even though polls asking about any specific aspect of Obamacare, but without mentioning "Obamacare", such as affordable coverage for pre-existing conditions, found quite widespread support. Trump could easily promise to repeal Obamacare and come up with better coverage for more people at lower cost. And while the economy as a whole has been recovering, the recovery has been uneven, especially in industries undone by technological advance or their environmental costs. Trump could easily promise to turn back the tide of technology and and the tide of rising oceans and environmental degradation. And that's how Trump barely won. Since then he has done a great job of keeping the racists, anti-semites, fascists, and anti-intellectuals in his camp, but those who had voted for Obama and then Trump have noticed that he hasn't really done anything for them after all. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency So now he has to create distractions of foreign menace of impoverished peasant invasions, and somehow avoid the distractions of domestic menace by his hard-core followers who took him too literally and too seriously. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2018/10/31/george-soros-and-migrant-caravan-how-lie-multiplied-online/1824633002/ https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/03/the-republican-party-and-white-identity But sticking too close to his white-identity-politics hard-core base may be his undoing. Cults of personality have not lasted long in American politics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality The Trumpist Party has no fixed ideology beyond the whims and prejudices of the leader, who owes nothing to the past or to the future, but mutually supports and abets other personality cults all over the world. Don't like it? The 2018 election is a national referendum on ideas vs personality cults. For this one specific moment in history, voters interested in ideas need to vote for ideas and against personality cults. That means in almost every instance, a vote for Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying home because it doesn't matter - is a vote for personality cults. An astonishing number of House and even Senate seats and Governorships are too close too call this year - meaning individual votes count as never before. In almost every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective vote against personality cults is to vote Democratic. == A president who wants to build a legacy needs a tent large enough to weather various kinds of crises among sub-constituencies. Trump seems uninterested and unable to do so. He's indeed a great disrupter, as claimed, but not a great builder, which also was claimed. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/trump-is-still-blaming-the-far-left-media-for-americas-divisiveness/ The nation will recover eventually, as it has from other fundamental crises. The outlook for the Republican Party is not so certain, and recalls the fate of the Whigs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Decline The Republicans might split into a hard-core identitarian Trumpist party and one espousing more traditional Republican values. Hard to guess which one will retain the Republican name! Trump certainly likes to see his name in gold on everything he touches. It would be good for the Republicans to finally excise their cancer of racism, anti-semitism, and fascism. After years of berating the Democrats for identity politics, it's time for the Republicans to take the same medicine. The Democrats could go the same factional route if success went to their heads and they got too far ahead of the middle of the electorate. That might eventually lead to a new majority coalition in the middle for a while. If the Democrats are smart, they will become the new majority coalition somewhat left of the middle, far enough left to have ideals and goals, yet close enough to the middle and the left to keep both in the tent. No small task. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative == So how are you going to vote? There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 269 hide 1 hideall 4 impact 366244 impactrate 4 likeimpress 537 negative 6 posted 2018-11-02 priority 2 ratio 6 react 2554 reactrate 0 shares 167 sharesrate 0 spam 1 sumclicks 1575 title Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? topic election wordrate 0 words 1434 ID 743866825957839 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743866825957839 audclicks 1609 audreach 1358 bimpress 17079 blikeimpress 10 blikeusers 8 breach 13204 commentsimpress 269 commentsusers 139 engaged 1943 hideallclicks 4 hideallclicksusers 4 hideclicks 1 hideclicksusers 1 impress 20962 likeclickusers 51 likeimpress 537 likeuimpress 193 likeusers 535 likeuusers 135 matchedlinkclicks 1279 matchedotherclicks 296 negclicks 6 negusers 6 oimpress 3883 oreach 2719 posted "11/02/2018 09:41:10 PM" postlinkclicks 1141 postotherclicks 214 reach 15805 sharesimpress 167 sharesusers 162 spamclicks 1 spamclicksusers 1 type Link budget 400 budgettype Lifetime cadname "Post: ""Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats?""" ccleantitle Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? cclicksall 4395 cclickslink 1153 ccpcall 0.08222071 ccpclink 0.3134085 cdelivery not_delivering cend 2018-12-31 cimpressions 17079 clicksunique 1090 conversionrank - cost 0.31340849956635 cpm 21.15814743 creach 13048 cstart 2018-10-01 ctrall 25.73335675 ctrlink 6.7509807365771 ecomments 87 ecpclink 0.3134085 ends 2018-11-06 engagedrank - ereact 321 eshares 103 frequency 1.3089362354384 indicator actions:link_click qualityrank - results 1153 spent 361.36 ========== Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? They hold many traditional conservative Republican points of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but they are voting Democratic this time. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/413756-pilot-sully-sullenberger-this-is-not-the-america-i-know-and https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-against-every-single-republican-columnist-urges-senate-candidates-dodge-on-trumps-birthright-citizenship-plan-2018-11-01 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/394377-george-will-is-right-vote-the-gop-out https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/08/10/you-cant-save-the-gop-by-electing-republican-senators/ What happens to them after the election? They'll have to decide based on the results of the election and how the remaining Republicans react to those results. If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that it lost because it wasn't Trumpist enough, then it will be truly a lost cause. Democrats will continue to figure out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and then Trump. The Democrats will be glad to leave the racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists, so they can follow the path of the American Independent Party to oblivion - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party So how are you going to vote? == The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic again - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency This constituency is desperate - for something to be hopeful about. But it sounds like the change that they are hoping for can't come from Trumpists. Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican constituency is getting driven away - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency This constituency is disgusted. What about that other Trump constituency that comes to his campaign rallies - even though they're either two years late or two years early. They're with Trump forever, because nobody else will will admit to wanting them - http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency Trump accepts the second constituency's unconditional love at his campaign rallies, which Trump craves like a junkie his junk. In return he offers them all the words and chants they want. And not much else. In fact, probably less... Consider the history of the social safety net. Social security - Republicans mostly voted in favor - https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html Medicare - Republicans opposed in the Senate, split in the House - https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally65.html Obamacare - No Republican votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Legislative_history even though it was based on Mitt Romney's popular Masscare - http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44854320/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/white-house-used-mitt-romney-health-care-law-blueprint-federal-law/#.W9fGV5xRf0M If you want to see how it adds up - https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_budget_detail_2017bs22017n_0010 Seeing how it adds up, McConnell's regretfully come to a sad conclusion - we'll have to reduce the social safety net to pay for billionaire tax cuts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-entitlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits But he wants the Democrats to take the lead on fiscal responsibility because the Trumpists reject the notion out of hand. But wait, there's more! According to Trump advisor Kudlow, a minimum wage is a terrible idea, when we could be passing more billionaire tax cuts instead - https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/larry-kudlow-federal-minimum-wage_us_5bdb1c94e4b0da7bfc17d59a == So how did we get here? Consider the evolution of the Republican Party - from liberation to identity politics. The Republican Party defeated the Confederacy, freed the slaves, and then got stuck in the House trying to decide the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876. So the Corrupt Bargain was struck - the Republican Hayes became President, and withdrew Federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction and giving the unrepentant southern Democrats a free hand for 80 years - https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317 until the Supreme Court finally struck down "separate but equal" and the Republican President Eisenhower enforced it with Federal troops - http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/eisenhower/aa_eisenhower_littlerock_1.html leading to founding of the John Birch Society with their "Impeach Earl Warren" campaign and claims that Eisenhower was a Communist traitor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society Goldwater and William Buckley and many other Republican leaders kept their distance from the Birchers, and in 1964 Goldwater lost by a landslide to LBJ. Goldwater was too far right, but of course the lunatic fringe thought he was not far right ENOUGH. But Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965 and that encouraged many Dixiecrats to abandon the Democratic Party, led by Strom Thurmond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_who_switched_parties and Albert Watson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties Their racism made many traditional Republicans nervous, but Richard Nixon had been rebuilding a political organization for another run for President. Nixon realized that, properly handled, the former Dixiecrats were an asset rather than a liability. According to Haldeman, "Nixon emphasized that you have to face the fact that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to devise a system that recognized this while not appearing to." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy Although the RNC chair apologized for the Southern Strategy in 2005, he was speaking too soon. In 2009, Obama was elected President, and the Tea Party was born https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement Since Obama's politics were not much different from Bill Clinton's, it's hard to escape the conclusion that racism was an important factor in the rise of the Tea Party. It was not explicitly racist, but it was part of the oppose-Obama-on-everything movement within the Republican party https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311 which certainly appealed to all the racists. Trump's great insight was that by signaling (subtly at first, blatantly later) to the racists and and anti-semites and fascists, they'd stick with him forever, and by other means he could also attract the Obama voters who were hoping for a change for the better. Of course, the reason there hadn't been as much change for the better as hoped, is that the Republicans were blocking Obama on everything. Even so, Obamacare passed and the economy as a whole has been recovering since 2009. But the Republicans cleverly convinced enough voters that they were against Obamacare, even though polls asking about any specific aspect of Obamacare, but without mentioning "Obamacare", such as affordable coverage for pre-existing conditions, found quite widespread support. Trump could easily promise to repeal Obamacare and come up with better coverage for more people at lower cost. And while the economy as a whole has been recovering, the recovery has been uneven, especially in industries undone by technological advance or their environmental costs. Trump could easily promise to turn back the tide of technology and and the tide of rising oceans and environmental degradation. And that's how Trump barely won. Since then he has done a great job of keeping the racists, anti-semites, fascists, and anti-intellectuals in his camp, but those who had voted for Obama and then Trump have noticed that he hasn't really done anything for them after all. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency So now he has to create distractions of foreign menace of impoverished peasant invasions, and somehow avoid the distractions of domestic menace by his hard-core followers who took him too literally and too seriously. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2018/10/31/george-soros-and-migrant-caravan-how-lie-multiplied-online/1824633002/ https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/03/the-republican-party-and-white-identity But sticking too close to his white-identity-politics hard-core base may be his undoing. Cults of personality have not lasted long in American politics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality The Trumpist Party has no fixed ideology beyond the whims and prejudices of the leader, who owes nothing to the past or to the future, but mutually supports and abets other personality cults all over the world. Don't like it? The 2018 election is a national referendum on ideas vs personality cults. For this one specific moment in history, voters interested in ideas need to vote for ideas and against personality cults. That means in almost every instance, a vote for Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying home because it doesn't matter - is a vote for personality cults. An astonishing number of House and even Senate seats and Governorships are too close too call this year - meaning individual votes count as never before. In almost every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective vote against personality cults is to vote Democratic. == A president who wants to build a legacy needs a tent large enough to weather various kinds of crises among sub-constituencies. Trump seems uninterested and unable to do so. He's indeed a great disrupter, as claimed, but not a great builder, which also was claimed. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/trump-is-still-blaming-the-far-left-media-for-americas-divisiveness/ The nation will recover eventually, as it has from other fundamental crises. The outlook for the Republican Party is not so certain, and recalls the fate of the Whigs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Decline The Republicans might split into a hard-core identitarian Trumpist party and one espousing more traditional Republican values. Hard to guess which one will retain the Republican name! Trump certainly likes to see his name in gold on everything he touches. It would be good for the Republicans to finally excise their cancer of racism, anti-semitism, and fascism. After years of berating the Democrats for identity politics, it's time for the Republicans to take the same medicine. The Democrats could go the same factional route if success went to their heads and they got too far ahead of the middle of the electorate. That might eventually lead to a new majority coalition in the middle for a while. If the Democrats are smart, they will become the new majority coalition somewhat left of the middle, far enough left to have ideals and goals, yet close enough to the middle and the left to keep both in the tent. No small task. http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative == So how are you going to vote? There's more at https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html http://www.political-theses.net/ http://www.political-scrapbook.net == topic election 2 ===== comments 3 impact 5449 impactrate 0 likeimpress 12 negative 0 posted 2018-11-02 priority 2 ratio 2 react 38 reactrate 0 shares 5 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 18 title Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? topic election wordrate 0 words 1434 ID 743772142633974 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743772142633974 audclicks 18 audreach 10 commentsimpress 3 commentsusers 3 engaged 18 impress 120 likeclickusers 16 likeimpress 12 likeuimpress 73 likeusers 12 likeuusers 60 matchedlinkclicks 1 matchedotherclicks 17 oimpress 120 oreach 82 posted "11/02/2018 06:26:10 PM" postlinkclicks 1 postotherclicks 9 reach 82 sharesimpress 5 sharesusers 4 type Link ========== Every vote counts! Texas edition - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/cruz-might-win-the-senate-but-the-democrats-are-winning-texas.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/beto-cruz-elections.html NY edition - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/midterms-new-york-new-jersey.html California edition - https://www.fightbackca.com/ topic election ===== comments 2 impact 63 impactrate 0 likeimpress 12 negative 0 posted 2018-11-02 ratio 2 react 45 reactrate 0 shares 3 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 28 title Every vote counts! topic election wordrate 0 words 14 ID 743620229315832 URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743620229315832 audclicks 28 audreach 13 commentsimpress 2 commentsusers 2 engaged 23 impress 184 likeclickusers 20 likeimpress 12 likeuimpress 121 likeusers 12 likeuusers 95 matchedlinkclicks 7 matchedotherclicks 21 oimpress 184 oreach 118 posted "11/02/2018 12:55:10 PM" postlinkclicks 6 postotherclicks 7 reach 118 sharesimpress 3 sharesusers 2 type Link