The table above has these entries. Post entries with just one line for Reach were not boosted. Boosted posts have two lines for Reach and several other items. The upper line reflects all interactions, the bottom line just those resulting from paid ads.
========== Why the maga-megadonors want to pack every court with reactionarie https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/pennsylvania-election-ballots-recount.html Every close election seems destined to end up in court. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-17 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Why the maga-megadonors want to pack every court with topic election wordrate 0 words 21 epoch Lifetime ID 966991578808784 impress 3 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/17/2024 19:42" reach 3 title Why the maga-megadonors want to pack every court with reactionarie type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/966991578808784 ========== New opportunities for Florida voters to express their opinions on Trumpis https://apnews.com/article/trump-florida-appointments-gaetz-special-elections-cabinet-0e818bee1450e6c018da247f88f4da1c #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-15 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title New opportunities for Florida voters to express their topic election wordrate 0 words 12 epoch Lifetime ID 965236528984289 impress 3 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/15/2024 07:01" reach 3 title New opportunities for Florida voters to express their opinions on Trumpis type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/965236528984289 ========== The good news - applicable to all Trump administrators taken out of Congress - is that they will precipitate special elections for their replacements. That will give the Democrats time to sharpen their arguments against unfolding MAGA tyran https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/nyregion/elise-stefanik-trump-un.html #PS1election ===== impact 8 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-11 ratio 2 react 2 reactrate 0 shares 1 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 1 title The good news - applicable to all Trump administrators topic election wordrate 0 words 39 audclicks 1 epoch Lifetime ID 962686609239281 impress 5 matchedlinkclicks 1 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/11/2024 20:42" rcs 1 reach 5 sharesimpress 1 title The good news - applicable to all Trump administrators taken out of Congress - type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/962686609239281 ========== How close was that election? Assuming that AZ and NV ultimately go to Trump - he's slightly ahead in both - then the electoral vote will be 312-226 and the popular vote 73.6 million to 69.3 million, based on votes counted so f But three states could have made the difference - WI 10 electoral votes 29419 pop vote difference MI 15 80308 PA 19 142132 Total 44 251859 So IF Harris had gotten 252000 stay-home Democrats or third-party voters in these states to show up and vote for her, OR gotten 126000 usual Democrats to vote for her instead of Trump, the electoral outcome would have been different. The corresponding data for other swing states - AZ 11 161175 GA 16 117172 NC 16 189804 NV 6 48193 Although most of the down-ballot races were accurately predicted, most of the presidential polling seems to have missed the mark in the swing states. Only Fox appears to have accurately predicted the final electoral vote. Was that dumb luck due to ideological bias, or are Trump voters more truthful with Fox pollsters? In 2016 it was definitely the case that many Trump voters did not disclose their intentions to the pollsters. In any case, 251,859 compares to Biden's 43,000 vote margin in 2020, Trump's 78,000 vote margin in 2016, and Bush's 540 vote margin in 2000. Unlike 2016 and 2000, however, the Democrats can't blame the Greens - they only got 91000 votes in WI+MI+PA this time. But did they really prefer to enable Trump? Their energies would be better spent promoting ranked-choice voting - https://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential so their voters can express their opinions and still enable the lesser rather than greater evil. But the perfect is ever the enemy of the good. https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-08 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title How close was that election? Assuming that AZ and NV topic election wordrate 2 words 291 epoch Lifetime ID 960271036147505 impress 35 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/08/2024 17:01" reach 19 title How close was that election? Assuming that AZ and NV ultimately go to Trump type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/960271036147505 ========== And the winners of the presidential election ar Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu! Who are now free to pursue their dreams without interference from Washington. The losers are our long-time allies who shared our (now former) American Enlightenment ideals. https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2022-enlightenment.html Will Trump withdraw all US forces from foreign countries, to put them on the Mexican border? If Trump won't defend democracies in Europe from Putin, they'll have to defend themselves. If Trump won't defend democracies in East Asia from Xi and Kim, they'll have to defend themselves. For the rest of us, it's time to think about how regional federalism might work - https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2020-regional.html #PS1election ===== impact 31 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-06 ratio 2 react 3 reactrate 0 shares 2 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 1 title And the winners of the presidential election ar topic election wordrate 1 words 102 audclicks 1 epoch Lifetime ID 958371973004078 impress 19 matchedlinkclicks 1 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/06/2024 08:12" rcs 2 reach 7 sharesimpress 2 title And the winners of the presidential election ar type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/958371973004078 ========== So far 270towin's predictions have been pretty accurat https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html Races on that list that were predicted D or R by 270towin have been called as predicted, but many close ones remain uncalled. Many of the listed donations were wasted on races that were never close. Some of the lucky donations that might have helped make a difference - MI-8 51-45 Rivet NY-19 50.5-49.5 Riley NM-2 52-48 Vasquez OH-13 51-49 Sykes TX-28 52.5-47.5 Cuellar #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-06 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title So far 270towin's predictions have been pretty accurat topic election wordrate 1 words 73 epoch Lifetime ID 958348706339738 impress 4 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/06/2024 07:53" reach 3 title So far 270towin's predictions have been pretty accurat type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/958348706339738 ========== Is it really darkest just before da So far bad news - NH gov called for Ayotte OH senate called for Moreno FL senate called for Scott TX senate called for Cruz And a smidgeon of good news - MN-2 house called for Craig NY-18 house called for Ryan PA-17 called for Deluzio More at https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-05 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Is it really darkest just before da topic election wordrate 1 words 56 epoch Lifetime ID 958000149707927 impress 7 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/05/2024 22:03" reach 6 title Is it really darkest just before da type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/958000149707927 ========== First race to be called on my watchlist - everybody agrees that Rick Scott of Florida is going back to the Senate to annoy his colleagu https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-05 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title First race to be called on my watchlist - everybody agrees topic election wordrate 0 words 27 epoch Lifetime ID 957866453054630 impress 2 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/05/2024 17:10" reach 2 title First race to be called on my watchlist - everybody agrees that Rick Scott of type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957866453054630 ========== If Trump wins, Democrats will blame voter suppression and foreign interferen If Harris wins, traditional Republicans will blame Trump's hubris - selecting Vance instead of Haley, then making and encouraging public comments that seemed to have been designed to turn off Latino and women voters. As previewed two years ago - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/05/trump-constitution-termination-rant-crazy/ IF the GOP leadership ever abandons Trump, it might happen almost overnight and be almost universal. Herd immunity! Trumpism doesn't need Trump. But the Make Aristocracy Great Again team and their foreign collaborators will blame election fraud, of course - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iMy0969BTw Including the Democrats' sneaky trick of letting the MAGAs roll out a campaign against a doddering senile president and extremist vice president - and then a switcheroo so Harris could use the exact same talking points against Trump and Vance. And including wives who cheat on their husbands in the polling booth. Trump never accepts responsibility for his mistakes or admits defeat. Everything he does is perfect! That's what he learned from Roy Cohn and that's why he's never learned a thing since. One thing Trump's really good at is salesmanship, especially to low-information voters like him. He's also always been very lucky. How much longer will his luck hold? Members of his team have tended to be unlucky, and when they can't take it any longer, he blames them. But if they pretend all is well, then they might get a pardon if Trump thinks they could be useful in the future. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-05 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title If Trump wins, Democrats will blame voter suppression and topic election wordrate 3 words 245 epoch Lifetime ID 957710816403527 impress 11 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/05/2024 11:07" reach 10 title If Trump wins, Democrats will blame voter suppression and foreign interferen type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957710816403527 ========== Red Flag Warni Qual notte di mistero! Una tempesta in cielo, in terra un omicidio! - Rigoletto Paraphrased to meet the moment tonight in California - What a night! A storm in the heavens, An election on the earth! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MTR&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/11/04/bay-area-police-election-unrest/ https://www.pge.com/en/newsroom/currents/safety/pg-e-calls-for-public-safety-power-shutoff.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-05 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Red Flag Warni topic election wordrate 1 words 40 epoch Lifetime ID 957696999738242 impress 9 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/05/2024 10:38" reach 8 title Red Flag Warni type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957696999738242 ========== Election eve update on close races, changed since 30 Oc CA-47 now leaning D - https://davemin.com/ NY-17 now learning R - https://www.mondaireforcongress.com/ Starting tomorrow, updates on results rather than predictions will be added to - https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-04 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Election eve update on close races, changed since 30 Oc topic election wordrate 0 words 34 epoch Lifetime ID 957155586459050 impress 15 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/04/2024 17:56" reach 14 title Election eve update on close races, changed since 30 Oc type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957155586459050 ========== Their preferred outcome - nobody wins - and nobody can agree on what to d https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/02/election-trump-harris-russia-china-iran/ The longer the uncertainty lasts, the better for America's foes. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-02 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Their preferred outcome - nobody wins - and nobody can topic election wordrate 0 words 26 epoch Lifetime ID 955669316607677 impress 5 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/02/2024 17:50" reach 5 title Their preferred outcome - nobody wins - and nobody can agree on what to d type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/955669316607677 ========== Why not just auction off the presidency to the highest bidd https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/us/elections/elon-musk-super-pac.html It would help with the Federal deficit. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-11-02 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Why not just auction off the presidency to the highest bidd topic election wordrate 0 words 19 epoch Lifetime ID 955360583305217 impress 5 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "11/02/2024 07:17" rcs 1 reach 5 reactions 1 title Why not just auction off the presidency to the highest bidd type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/955360583305217 ========== And then there's the enemy withi https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/us/elections/election-security-luzerne-county.html Who knows what they will do. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-30 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title And then there's the enemy withi topic election wordrate 0 words 13 epoch Lifetime ID 953397926834816 impress 5 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/30/2024 16:32" reach 5 title And then there's the enemy withi type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/953397926834816 ========== True to form, the MAGA faithful accused the Democrats of what the MAGA faithful were doing. Now their only hope is a Trump pard https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/30/they-tried-prove-trumps-fraud-claims-they-failed-got-trouble/ But most of them violated state laws, which Trump can't pardon. Unless he suspends the Constitution and rules by decree. If he has a Make Aristocracy Great Again majority in Congress though, he can try. That will be a real test of character for members of Congress - they'll have to choose between a place in the Hall of Fame or the Hall of Infamy. We can readily guess how most will choose. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-30 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title True to form, the MAGA faithful accused the Democrats of topic election wordrate 2 words 98 epoch Lifetime ID 953384750169467 impress 3 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/30/2024 16:01" reach 3 title True to form, the MAGA faithful accused the Democrats of what the MAGA faithful type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/953384750169467 ========== Tossups remaining in 2024 election, with links to interesting dat https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-30 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Tossups remaining in 2024 election, with links to topic election wordrate 0 words 11 epoch Lifetime ID 953364466838162 impress 3 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/30/2024 15:13" reach 3 title Tossups remaining in 2024 election, with links to interesting dat type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/953364466838162 ========== Sometimes who you vote AGAINST is more important than who you vote FO https://au.news.yahoo.com/leonard-greene-don-t-blame-124500589.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-27 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Sometimes who you vote AGAINST is more important than who topic election wordrate 0 words 14 epoch Lifetime ID 951194413721834 impress 8 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/27/2024 16:26" reach 7 title Sometimes who you vote AGAINST is more important than who you vote FO type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/951194413721834 ========== Consequential elections? 2024 is not the first nor the las https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2024/10/25/leubsdorf-trump-harris-2024-election-history/stories/202410250041 The megadonor class will keep trying to maintain its wealth and power, and foreign interests will keep trying to help them. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-27 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Consequential elections? 2024 is not the first nor topic election wordrate 0 words 32 epoch Lifetime ID 951192673722008 impress 7 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/27/2024 16:23" reach 6 title Consequential elections? 2024 is not the first nor the las type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/951192673722008 ========== It's a song we've heard befor https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/voter-fraud-claims.html and a song we'll hear again - https://cagle.com/cartoonist/zyglis/2024/10/24/289580/election-fraud The choir has been rehearsing for years! #PS1election ===== impact 2 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-27 ratio 4 react 1 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 1 title It's a song we've heard befor topic election wordrate 0 words 21 audclicks 1 epoch Lifetime ID 951190650388877 impress 5 matchedlinkclicks 1 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/27/2024 16:18" reach 4 title It's a song we've heard befor type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/951190650388877 ========== Foreign propagandists have been hard at wor https://apnews.com/article/disinformation-election-interference-russia-china-2925ca62c1ba8c1893454ccb2f76785a But probably we ain't seen nothing yet - https://apnews.com/article/election-interference-trump-harris-russia-china-efff7f7fcbc71032b1152d011c953eba #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-17 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Foreign propagandists have been hard at wor topic election wordrate 0 words 16 epoch Lifetime ID 943691424472133 impress 4 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/17/2024 15:24" reach 3 title Foreign propagandists have been hard at wor type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/943691424472133 ========== More critical election races to conside Senate seats that might be leaning Republican or likely Republican - FL https://www.debbieforflorida.com/ Debbie Mucarsel-Powell MT https://jontester.com/ Jon Tester TX https://colinallred.com/ Colin Allred The pundits don't agree exactly - check them out at https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election-predictions/ These candidates would certainly appreciate your support, even though they've got an uphill climb. On the upside, two of their opponents - FL Rick Scott and TX Ted Cruz - are in perennial contention for the title of senator most disliked by other senators of their own party. And MT Tim Sheehy? He's a true Trumpist at heart, saying whatever is best to look out for #1 - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/06/tim-sheehy-autobiography-pentagon-vetting-navy-seal But the Trumpists are confident their base will turn out and vote without asking questions. If you want to give them a run for their money, you'll need to pony up some money of your own. But for a safer bet, consider these candidates, some of which have just been demoted from Lean Democratic to Tossup, due to a tsunami of dark money flowing to their Trumpist opponents - AZ https://gallegoforarizona.com/ Ruben Gallego MI https://elissaslotkin.org/ Elissa Slotkin NV https://www.rosenfornevada.com/ Jacky Rosen OH https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ Sherrod Brown PA https://bobcasey.com/ Bob Casey WI https://www.tammybaldwin.com/ Tammy Baldwin Don't like tsunamis? Who's in your lifeboat? https://endcitizensunited.org/candidates/ #PS1election https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election-predictions/ ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-16 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title More critical election races to conside topic election wordrate 1 words 172 epoch Lifetime ID 943013917873217 impress 9 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/16/2024 22:13" reach 9 title More critical election races to conside type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/943013917873217 ========== Most of us have very little to say about the presidential electio https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html That's why it's important to focus on the races you CAN hope to influence. https://stateline.org/2024/09/23/the-deciders-the-issues-and-states-that-will-determine-who-wins-the-white-house #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-15 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Most of us have very little to say about the presidential topic election wordrate 0 words 27 epoch Lifetime ID 941987491309193 impress 4 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/15/2024 21:13" reach 4 title Most of us have very little to say about the presidential electio type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941987491309193 ========== Addicted to reading the pol There's no point unless you plan to do something in response. https://secure.actblue.com/ In particular, the presidential race is likely to turn on a gnat's eyelash - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/politics/presidential-election-third-party-candidates.html Third parties, in particular, might make the difference - it happened before - https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html and it can happen again. If the election goes to the House, Trump will not hesitate to make more Corrupt Bargain history - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrupt_bargain It sounds like he already made Corrupt Bargains with the oil tycoons, RFK Jr, Musk, and probably more - but whether he will keep them just adds to the suspense. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-15 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Addicted to reading the pol topic election wordrate 1 words 97 epoch Lifetime ID 941783441329598 impress 3 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/15/2024 14:23" reach 3 title Addicted to reading the pol type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941783441329598 ========== If you think the country is better off being run by reaction rich old white men, you know how to vote. They're spending hundreds of millions to make sure. If you don't think their way, then besides the tossups in the previous post, here are more races where your support might make a difference - Governor tossup - NH https://joycecraig.org/ Senate leaning Democratic - AZ https://gallegoforarizona.com/ MI https://elissaslotkin.org/ NV https://www.rosenfornevada.com/ PA https://bobcasey.com/ WI https://www.tammybaldwin.com/ The pundits listed later agree on the races above. For the following House races, each is considered a tossup by two out the three of the pundits, and none consider them likely Democratic or Republican - CA-41 https://willrollinsforcongress.com/ AZ-1 https://www.amishforarizona.com/ CO-8 https://www.caraveoforcongress.com/ IA-3 https://lanonbaccam.com/ ME-2 https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/ NC-1 https://votedondavis.com/ NE-2 https://www.vargasfornebraska.com/ NY-17 https://www.mondaireforcongress.com/ NY-19 https://joshrileyforcongress.com/ PA-8 https://cartwrightcongress.com/ WA-3 https://marieforcongress.com/ The following are close too and might end up being tossups - CA-47 https://davemin.com/ AZ-6 https://www.engelforarizona.com/ IA-1 https://www.bohannanforcongress.com/ NY-4 https://lauragillen.com/ NY-22 https://www.mannionforny.com/ OH-9 https://marcykaptur.com/ OH-13 https://www.emiliasykesforcongress.com/ PA-7 https://wildforcongress.com/ PA-10 https://janellestelson.com/ VA-7 https://vindmanforcongress.com/ None of them will vote your way all the time, but consider the alternative - their opponents will vote their megadonors' way all the time. If the choice seems overwhelming, consider https://www.dscc.org/ https://dccc.org/ And for one-stop financial donations to any of the above - https://secure.actblue.com/ Punditry sources - https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/ https://www.270towin.com/ https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/ #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-15 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title If you think the country is better off being run by topic election wordrate 1 words 156 epoch Lifetime ID 941760587998550 impress 10 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/15/2024 13:36" reach 5 title If you think the country is better off being run by reaction type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941760587998550 ========== The rural bias of the Constitution, as encapsulated in the Electoral Colle https://www.reduce-rural-bias.net/ guarantees that this presidential election will be decided by a very few undecided voters in a very few states that do not know much about politics, economics, or the rest of the world. https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html Both campaigns are desperately trying to think of ways to reach those voters, but from now on will probably expend their greatest energy on getting out occasional voters in every state with toss-up races. What are the tossup races of national significance? Any that affect Congress - Senate OH https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ House CA-13 https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/ CA-22 https://www.rudysalas.com/ CA-27 https://www.georgewhitesides.com/ CA-45 https://www.derektranforcongress.com/ AK https://marypeltola.com/ MI-7 https://www.hertelformichigan.com/ MI-8 https://kristenmcdonaldrivet.com/ OR-5 https://www.janellebynum.com/ If you want to make a difference, donate time or money to any of these candidates. These races are still called tossups by all of the following - https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/ https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/ https://www.270towin.com/ #PS1election ===== comments 1 impact 37 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-15 ratio 7 react 3 reactrate 0 shares 1 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 1 title The rural bias of the Constitution, as encapsulated in topic election wordrate 0 words 123 audclicks 1 commentsimpress 1 epoch Lifetime ID 941736461334296 impress 27 matchedlinkclicks 1 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/15/2024 12:53" rcs 3 reach 23 reactions 1 sharesimpress 1 title The rural bias of the Constitution, as encapsulated in the Electoral Colle type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941736461334296 ========== Trump owes a lot to the rural bias in the Constitution that he wants to suspend - a holdover from the demands of southern slaveowners that would rather have remained slaves to King George than give up their own slav https://www.reduce-rural-bias.net/ Trump wants a mandate! https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4918724-donald-trump-mandate-presidential-race/ He'll certainly lose the popular vote, probably by even more than in 2016 or 2020. He might just squeak by in the Electoral College due to its rural bias and due to voter suppression and winner-take-all, or he might be able to get the election to the House where he's certain to be elected by the Make Aristocracy Great Again faithful, voting state by state - more rural bias. But it appears that nobody will win clear control of Congress - and the MAGA exremists will still control the House by making non-negotiable extremist demands. Sounds just like college campuses of the 1960's! There's not much that most people can do about the presidential election, but everybody can influence the tossup races for the Senate and House. All it takes is money - you get the government you're willing to pay for. The MAGA megadonors like this system. #PS1election ===== impact 19 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-07 ratio 10 react 1 reactrate 0 shares 1 sharesrate 0 title Trump owes a lot to the rural bias in the Constitution topic election wordrate 1 words 193 epoch Lifetime ID 934987622009180 impress 19 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/07/2024 17:09" rcs 1 reach 10 sharesimpress 1 title Trump owes a lot to the rural bias in the Constitution that he wants to suspend type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/934987622009180 ========== Perhaps the biggest lie in the VP debate was the implication that the VP is responsible for very much or can change very much. Congress is supposed to make the laws, but its usual paralysis means that the president does more than he should by executive order. The VP has no such power, and usually gets stuck with the jobs that the president doesn't want, such as Covid for Pence and attacking the roots of migration for Harris. Although GOP like pretend that Harris was the border czar who set policy, her actual charge was to determine steps that would eliminate illegal immigration at the source. https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/kamala-harris-border-policy-rcna163317 That's a tough nut to crack because most of the illegal immigants are fleeing for their lives from countries ruled by corrupt violent strong men - just the sorts of leaders Trump admires most. He promises to live up to their example if he's re-elected. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-01 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Perhaps the biggest lie in the VP debate was the topic election wordrate 1 words 152 epoch Lifetime ID 930419592465983 impress 6 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/01/2024 22:00" reach 5 title Perhaps the biggest lie in the VP debate was the implication that the VP is type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/930419592465983 ========== That was the debate that wasn' https://apnews.com/article/debate-walz-vance-misinformation-fact-check-a3f67b1fdef425038dfac9267861247c It probably didn't change the minds of any remaining swing voters in swing states. The hurricane catastrophe in swing state NC might have a more profound effect - changing the beliefs of the victims about climate change or the federal government, or keeping them too busy recovering to have time to vote. In happier news, Jimmy Carter made it to 100. Possible inferences - being a one-term president due to an election loss is good for your health. Or that teaching Sunday School is good for your health. Although Walz was an elementary school teacher, Trump mainly teaches by example, e.g. Trump U. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-10-01 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title That was the debate that wasn' topic election wordrate 1 words 110 epoch Lifetime ID 930412049133404 impress 6 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "10/01/2024 21:47" reach 5 title That was the debate that wasn' type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/930412049133404 ========== There's not much you can do about the presidential election - it's up to a very few voters in a very few states - that mostly don't follow politics and never studied economi https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html But more important to the Make-Aristocracy-Great-Again megadonors is Who's elected governor? - MAGA governors can veto Democratic state legislation! Who's elected senator? - MAGA senators can help a MAGA president put more reactionary MAGA judges in the Federal judiciary! Who's elected to the House? - MAGA representative can shut down the Federal government, much to the delight of their megadonors who find that access to rural state legislators is much more affordable. Some up-in-the-air races in November - where your small donation could make a difference for the whole country, if not the world - Governor tossup: NH https://joycecraig.org/ Governor lean Democratic: WA https://www.bobferguson.com/ NC https://www.joshstein.org/ Senate tossup: OH https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ Senate lean Democratic: AZ https://gallegoforarizona.com/ NV https://www.rosenfornevada.com/ WI https://www.tammybaldwin.com/ MI https://elissaslotkin.org/ PA https://bobcasey.com/ About 360 House seats are essentially uncontested. So the megadonors are pouring money into the 75 seats that might be contested, and especially the 20 or so tossups. CA House tossups: CA-13 https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/ CA-22 https://www.rudysalas.com/ CA-27 https://www.georgewhitesides.com/ CA-41 https://willrollinsforcongress.com/ CA-45 https://www.derektranforcongress.com/ CA-47 https://davemin.com/ For more see the following: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/ https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/ House tossups: AK AZ-1 AZ-6 CO-8 ME-2 MI-7 MI-8 NC-1 NE-2 NM-2 NY-17 NY-19 OH-13 OR-5 PA-7 PA-8 WA-3 House lean Democratic: CT-5 IN-1 IL-17 MN-2 NM-2 NY-4 NY-18 NY-22 OH-9 PA-17 TX-28 TX-34 VA-7 #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-09-24 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title There's not much you can do about the presidential election topic election wordrate 1 words 210 epoch Lifetime ID 924857503022192 impress 22 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "09/24/2024 20:07" reach 7 title There's not much you can do about the presidential election - it's up to a very type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/924857503022192 ========== It doesn't take much change in turnout in the swing states to change the presidential election outcom https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html Is the GOP in a panic? Too much happy talk about how Trump was going to win by a landslide might have kept some of their base at home - but it might have kept some of the Democratic base at home too. Instead, the Democrats seem to have renewed energy - https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/27/polling-kamala-harris-trump-00171514 #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-07-28 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title It doesn't take much change in turnout in the swing states topic election wordrate 0 words 70 epoch Lifetime ID 884545173720092 impress 6 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "07/28/2024 00:01" reach 5 title It doesn't take much change in turnout in the swing states to change the type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/884545173720092 ========== We'll see how tough on crime Kamala Harris is when she debates Trump, but in the meantim https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/07/25/california-long-a-conservative-foil-is-a-likely-trump-target-with-kamala-harris-as-rival/ Stephens is correct that she might not be the best candidate to sway the 100,000 swing voters in the swing states that she needs to be elected president - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/23/opinion/kamala-harris-democrats.html But she might be the best candidate to energize the Democratic base in the rest of the country to elect a Democratic Congress, which ultimately is more important. It might be good to let the swing state delegates at the Democratic convention nominate the vice presidential candidate by ranked-choice voting, based on how well the contenders attack the Trumpist agenda rather than each other. One problem is that most of the obvious candidates are governors or senators that Democrats need to keep in office. They all just need to keep reminding the voters that Harris has spent more time prosecuting crimes than committing them or inciting them - https://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2024/07/23/kamala-harris-america-trump-president-election/ideas/connecting-california/ #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-07-26 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title We'll see how tough on crime Kamala Harris is when she topic election wordrate 0 words 155 epoch Lifetime ID 883549507152992 impress 7 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "07/26/2024 08:04" reach 5 title We'll see how tough on crime Kamala Harris is when she debates Trump, but in type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/883549507152992 ========== The Federal Election Commission has been uselessly partisanly deadlocked for years, so Trump's complaint is only for propaganda purposes https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/23/politics/trump-campaign-fec-complaint-block-biden-harris-funds/index.html After all, in HIS cases, Trump always helped the wheels of justice turn as slowly as possible, if at all. #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-07-25 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title The Federal Election Commission has been uselessly topic election wordrate 0 words 40 epoch Lifetime ID 883057527202190 impress 4 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "07/25/2024 12:58" reach 4 title The Federal Election Commission has been uselessly partisanly deadlocked for type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/883057527202190 ========== Want to do something about Trump and Vance? Fickle fate might deal them a narrow win or a narrow loss, but either way only bad things will come out of Congress as long as Putinist-Trumpist-Dixiecrat GOP controls it. Fortunately, other Federal offices are elected by popular vote, rather than by an electoral college or state legislatures, so you CAN make a differen The Senate is particularly critical since the Democrats are defending far more seats the the GOP - just as in 2018. Sabato identifies just two tossup states - MT and OH. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-senate/ 270towin agrees - https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/ MT - https://jontester.com/ OH - https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ And they agree on just two tossup governor races - NC and NH NC - https://www.joshstein.org/ NH - will not hold its primary until September there are 3 Democratic candidates, 6 GOP, 2 other As for the House, Sabato identifies 9 currently Democratic tossups including CA-47 and 9 currently GOP tossups including CA-13,22,27 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/ while 270towin identifies 25 tossups, including CA-13,22,27,41,47 https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/ You can support any of these candidates individually at their own websites or at https://secure.actblue.com/ Or you could let the party leaders make the support allocations for you at https://www.dscc.org/ https://dccc.org/ https://democraticgovernors.org/ https://dlcc.org/ And if you want to do something long term about minority rule, https://democraticredistricting.com/ Remember the GOP plan - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/project-2025-is-increasingly-unpopular/ar-BB1quzko And the Democratic plan - same as in 1896 and 1932 and 1964 - There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that, if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them. Now go do something about it! #PS1election https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-senate/ ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-07-23 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Want to do something about Trump and Vance? Fickle fate topic election wordrate 0 words 273 epoch Lifetime ID 881799517327991 impress 8 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "07/23/2024 13:16" reach 7 title Want to do something about Trump and Vance? Fickle fate might deal them a type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/881799517327991 ========== Whatever you think of Biden's withdrawal, it has already begun to exert a cost on America's world leadership, that is going to make matters more difficult for whoever is elected in November. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea will all try to exploit a moment of weakne https://apnews.com/article/biden-world-reaction-race-withdrawal-a627c5f773d5f440541bd299efe3dbc3 But the withdrawal has completely upended the Trump/Vance campaign strategy, and all they have left is aimless attacks on Harris, hoping she will be the candidate. https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-harris-drops-out-920d7fe1c364e82290abeb9e0d1411c7 And they REALLY don't want to answer questions about age and health any more. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/22/trump-age-health/ So keeping the Trump/Vance campaign in suspense for another month, as to who they are running against, seems like a good strategy. A good use of the next month would be to let all the potential Biden replacements make their cases before the convention by campaigning hard for the tossup races that matter - for Congress, governors, and state legislatures. That will maximize the opportunity for Trump/Vance, not knowing who the ultimate opponent will be, to say something stupid that they will regret later. They will be under intense pressure to say something - anything - outrageous to regain the spotlight from the Democrats. Then at the convention, let all the delegates select the presidential candidate by ranked-choice voting. Then, let all the delegates from the swing states - GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, etc - choose the vice-presidential candidate by ranked-choice voting. After all, no matter who runs, most of the Democratic voters will still vote Democratic, and the Trump voters will still vote Trump, and the election will still be decided by probably less than 100,000 swing voters in the swing states - who mostly don't follow politics and tend to vote their pocketbooks - aggravated by a tsunami of propaganda telling them that inflation is all Biden's fault. https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html But after all the unexpected events of the last month, who can say what unexpected event in the next three months might change the minds of those swing voters? So it's a waste of energy to worry too much about who's in the White House. Congress with a reliable majority can control the president better than the president can control Congress. What matters - that we can affect - is who is in Congress, governors' offices, and state legislatures. As is traditional, the ruling class will attempt to win by throwing immense sums of dark money at Putinist-Trumpist-Dixiecrat GOP candidates to broadcast their propaganda. Democrats probably can't outraise them, but they do have to keep harping on the real agenda of the GOP megadonors - tax cuts for megadonors, benefit cuts for everybody else; deregulation for megadonors, onerous restrictions on everybody else; union busting, keeping illegal immigration dangerous and illegal but possible,to have a cheap exploitable workforce, etc. https://apnews.com/article/biden-drops-out-2024-election-ddffde72838370032bdcff946cfc2ce6 #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-07-21 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title Whatever you think of Biden's withdrawal, it has already topic election wordrate 1 words 456 epoch Lifetime ID 880832297424713 impress 47 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "07/21/2024 22:54" reach 5 title Whatever you think of Biden's withdrawal, it has already begun to exert a cost type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/880832297424713 ========== If the Greens had voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016, they would have won, instead of losing by 1000 and 78000 votes. If the Libertarians had voted for Trump in 2020, he would have won, instead of losing by 44000 votes. https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html When the country is so closely divided, every swing voter in every swing state counts. But only THOSE voters in THOSE states. Looks like the same story in 2024 - Biden will win the popular vote handily, but Trump might prevail anyway, depending on how those voters feel in October. https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2020-election.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/11/election-2024-2016-biden-trump-clinton/ #PS1election ===== impact 10 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-07-12 ratio 4 react 1 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 1 title If the Greens had voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in topic election wordrate 0 words 95 audclicks 1 epoch Lifetime ID 875099541331322 impress 4 matchedlinkclicks 1 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "07/12/2024 12:35" reach 4 title If the Greens had voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016, they would have type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/875099541331322 ========== A night to mis-remembe https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-misinformation-election-debate-trump-biden-577507522762aa10f6ee5be3a0ced2bb But not too many minds were changed, except apparently some Democratic megadonors. GOP megadonors were probably pleased - Trump can really hog the spotlight while their legislators quietly carry out their actual agenda in a GOP Congress - less taxes for the rich, less benefits for the masses. So the name of the game at this point is to quit worrying about the presidential election - it will be decided by a few voters in a few states, depending on whatever random events catch their attention in October. Apply your time, energy, and money to winnable elections for Congress, state legislatures, and governors. #PS1election ===== impact 22 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-06-28 ratio 4 react 2 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 sumclicks 2 title A night to mis-remembe topic election wordrate 0 words 108 audclicks 2 epoch Lifetime ID 866010745573535 impress 10 matchedotherclicks 2 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "06/28/2024 07:33" reach 8 title A night to mis-remembe type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/866010745573535 ========== What's the best way for Biden to address Trumpi https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/19/biden-lincoln-house-divided-lessons/ Does it matter? The presidential election is close enough that it will be decided by a relatively few undecided, in a relatively few states, who don't follow politics much, but don't like inflation. They hear propagandists talking about how bad the economy is often enough to believe it. If Trump is re-elected, the real victory will belong to the right-wing propaganda machine led by Fox, Newsmax, OAN, with all their foreign collaborators on sociai media. The reality, of course, is that the American recovery from the covid disruption is the envy of the rest of the world, which has had to deal with far worse inflation and shortages, and far worse unemployment. And most people seem to have forgotten how bad things got as the 2008-9 recession ended the Bush era. And has anybody noticed that gasoline prices are going down at the beginning of summer, just before the election? Whatever the reasons for that, there's relatively little that the US government can do to affect the world oil price - more than anybody else, that's up to MBS deciding to increase or decrease Saudi output. Still, those voters want a change, and change they'll get if they elect Trump and a Trumpist Congress. And they'll be delighted by the change if they like to cut taxes and regulation for the rich, cut benefits for the poor, bust unions, exploit illegal immigrant labor, and generally undeal everything since the New Deal. 90 years ago, discontented voters in Germany and Italy made the same choice and got the same kinds of results - and then much worse. Now we have climate change and consequent global violent instability as well. But you don't have to worry about that if you're too old to see how it ends, or if you're rich enough that you can relocate wherever and whenever you like. But the presidential election is only a third of the puzzle. It doesn't matter if Trump wins if Trumpists lose Congress. And that's something that voters in every state have a stake in and can affect. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/21/trump-biden-2024-congress-election-voting/ #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-06-20 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title What's the best way for Biden to address Trumpi topic election wordrate 0 words 355 epoch Lifetime ID 860563119451631 impress 8 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "06/20/2024 00:01" reach 5 title What's the best way for Biden to address Trumpi type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/860563119451631 ========== That explains a l https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/politics/rfk-jr-parastic-worm-brain/index.html #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-05-10 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title That explains a l topic election wordrate 0 words 5 epoch Lifetime ID 835073872000556 impress 2 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "05/10/2024 12:27" reach 2 title That explains a l type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/835073872000556 ========== You don't know about the election until you've heard from Dave Bar https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/16/election-postcards-2024/ #PS1election ===== impact 0 impactrate 0 negative 0 posted 2024-04-16 reactrate 0 sharesrate 0 title You don't know about the election until you've heard from topic election wordrate 0 words 13 epoch Lifetime ID 819843133523630 impress 5 pageid 100064938510484 pagename "Political scrapbook" posted "04/16/2024 18:22" reach 5 title You don't know about the election until you've heard from Dave Bar type Links URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/819843133523630