The table above has these entries. Post entries with just one line for Reach were not boosted. Boosted posts have two lines for Reach and several other items. The upper line reflects all interactions, the bottom line just those resulting from paid ads.
==========
Why the maga-megadonors want to pack every court with
reactionarie
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/pennsylvania-election-ballots-recount.html
Every close election seems destined to end up in court.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-17
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Why the maga-megadonors want to pack every court with
topic election
wordrate 3
words 21
epoch Lifetime
ID 966991578808784
impress 3
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/17/2024 19:42"
reach 3
title Why the maga-megadonors want to pack every court with reactionarie
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/966991578808784
==========
New opportunities for Florida voters to express their
opinions on Trumpis
https://apnews.com/article/trump-florida-appointments-gaetz-special-elections-cabinet-0e818bee1450e6c018da247f88f4da1c
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-15
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title New opportunities for Florida voters to express their
topic election
wordrate 1
words 12
epoch Lifetime
ID 965236528984289
impress 3
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/15/2024 07:01"
reach 3
title New opportunities for Florida voters to express their opinions on Trumpis
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/965236528984289
==========
The good news - applicable to all Trump administrators
taken out of Congress - is that they will precipitate
special elections for their replacements. That will
give the Democrats time to sharpen their arguments against
unfolding MAGA tyran
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/nyregion/elise-stefanik-trump-un.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 8
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-11
ratio 2
react 2
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 1
title The good news - applicable to all Trump administrators
topic election
wordrate 1
words 39
audclicks 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 962686609239281
impress 5
matchedlinkclicks 1
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/11/2024 20:42"
rcs 1
reach 5
sharesimpress 1
title The good news - applicable to all Trump administrators taken out of Congress -
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/962686609239281
==========
How close was that election? Assuming that AZ and NV
ultimately go to Trump - he's slightly ahead in both - then
the electoral vote will be 312-226 and the popular vote
73.6 million to 69.3 million, based on votes counted so f
But three states could have made the difference -
WI 10 electoral votes 29419 pop vote difference
MI 15 80308
PA 19 142132
Total 44 251859
So IF Harris had gotten 252000 stay-home Democrats or
third-party voters in these states to show up and vote
for her,
OR gotten 126000 usual Democrats to vote for her instead
of Trump, the electoral outcome would have been different.
The corresponding data for other swing states -
AZ 11 161175
GA 16 117172
NC 16 189804
NV 6 48193
Although most of the down-ballot races were accurately
predicted,
most of the presidential polling seems to have missed the
mark in the swing states.
Only Fox appears to have accurately predicted the final
electoral vote. Was that dumb luck due to ideological bias,
or are Trump voters more truthful with Fox pollsters?
In 2016 it was definitely the case that many Trump voters
did not disclose their intentions to the pollsters.
In any case, 251,859 compares to Biden's 43,000 vote margin
in 2020, Trump's 78,000 vote margin in 2016, and Bush's
540 vote margin in 2000.
Unlike 2016 and 2000, however, the Democrats can't blame
the Greens - they only got 91000 votes in WI+MI+PA
this time. But did they really prefer to enable
Trump? Their energies would be better spent promoting
ranked-choice voting -
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential
so their voters can express their opinions and still
enable the lesser rather than greater evil.
But the perfect is ever the enemy of the good.
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-08
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title How close was that election? Assuming that AZ and NV
topic election
wordrate 6
words 291
epoch Lifetime
ID 960271036147505
impress 31
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/08/2024 17:01"
reach 18
title How close was that election? Assuming that AZ and NV ultimately go to Trump
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/960271036147505
==========
And the winners of the presidential election ar
Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu!
Who are now free to pursue their dreams without
interference from Washington.
The losers are our long-time allies who shared our (now
former) American Enlightenment ideals.
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2022-enlightenment.html
Will Trump withdraw all US forces from foreign countries,
to put them on the Mexican border?
If Trump won't defend democracies in Europe from Putin,
they'll have to defend themselves.
If Trump won't defend democracies in East Asia from Xi
and Kim,
they'll have to defend themselves.
For the rest of us, it's time to think about how regional
federalism might work -
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2020-regional.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 31
impactrate 1
negative 0
posted 2024-11-06
ratio 2
react 3
reactrate 0
shares 2
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 1
title And the winners of the presidential election ar
topic election
wordrate 2
words 102
audclicks 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 958371973004078
impress 17
matchedlinkclicks 1
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/06/2024 08:12"
rcs 2
reach 7
sharesimpress 2
title And the winners of the presidential election ar
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/958371973004078
==========
So far 270towin's predictions have been pretty accurat
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html
Races on that list that were predicted D or R by 270towin
have been called as predicted, but many close ones remain
uncalled.
Many of the listed donations were wasted on races that
were never close.
Some of the lucky donations that might have helped make
a difference -
MI-8 51-45 Rivet
NY-19 50.5-49.5 Riley
NM-2 52-48 Vasquez
OH-13 51-49 Sykes
TX-28 52.5-47.5 Cuellar
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-06
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title So far 270towin's predictions have been pretty accurat
topic election
wordrate 1
words 73
epoch Lifetime
ID 958348706339738
impress 4
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/06/2024 07:53"
reach 3
title So far 270towin's predictions have been pretty accurat
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/958348706339738
==========
Is it really darkest just before da
So far bad news -
NH gov called for Ayotte
OH senate called for Moreno
FL senate called for Scott
TX senate called for Cruz
And a smidgeon of good news -
MN-2 house called for Craig
NY-18 house called for Ryan
PA-17 called for Deluzio
More at
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-05
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Is it really darkest just before da
topic election
wordrate 1
words 56
epoch Lifetime
ID 958000149707927
impress 7
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/05/2024 22:03"
reach 6
title Is it really darkest just before da
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/958000149707927
==========
First race to be called on my watchlist - everybody agrees
that Rick Scott of Florida is going back to the Senate to
annoy his colleagu
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-05
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title First race to be called on my watchlist - everybody agrees
topic election
wordrate 0
words 27
epoch Lifetime
ID 957866453054630
impress 2
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/05/2024 17:10"
reach 2
title First race to be called on my watchlist - everybody agrees that Rick Scott of
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957866453054630
==========
If Trump wins, Democrats will blame voter suppression and
foreign interferen
If Harris wins, traditional Republicans will blame Trump's
hubris - selecting Vance instead of Haley, then making
and encouraging public comments that seemed to have been
designed to turn off Latino and women voters.
As previewed two years ago -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/05/trump-constitution-termination-rant-crazy/
IF the GOP leadership ever abandons Trump, it might happen
almost overnight and be almost universal. Herd immunity!
Trumpism doesn't need Trump.
But the Make Aristocracy Great Again team and their foreign
collaborators will blame election fraud, of course -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iMy0969BTw
Including the Democrats' sneaky trick of letting the MAGAs
roll out a campaign against a doddering senile president
and extremist vice president - and then a switcheroo so
Harris could use the exact same talking points against
Trump and Vance.
And including wives who cheat on their husbands in the
polling booth.
Trump never accepts responsibility for his mistakes
or admits defeat. Everything he does is perfect!
That's what he learned from Roy Cohn and that's why he's
never learned a thing since.
One thing Trump's really good at is salesmanship,
especially to low-information voters like him.
He's also always been very lucky. How much longer will
his luck hold?
Members of his team have tended to be unlucky, and when
they can't take it any longer, he blames them. But if
they pretend all is well, then they might get a pardon if
Trump thinks they could be useful in the future.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-05
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title If Trump wins, Democrats will blame voter suppression and
topic election
wordrate 4
words 245
epoch Lifetime
ID 957710816403527
impress 11
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/05/2024 11:07"
reach 10
title If Trump wins, Democrats will blame voter suppression and foreign interferen
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957710816403527
==========
Red Flag Warni
Qual notte di mistero!
Una tempesta in cielo,
in terra un omicidio!
- Rigoletto
Paraphrased to meet the moment tonight in California -
What a night!
A storm in the heavens,
An election on the earth!
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MTR&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/11/04/bay-area-police-election-unrest/
https://www.pge.com/en/newsroom/currents/safety/pg-e-calls-for-public-safety-power-shutoff.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-05
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Red Flag Warni
topic election
wordrate 1
words 40
epoch Lifetime
ID 957696999738242
impress 9
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/05/2024 10:38"
reach 8
title Red Flag Warni
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957696999738242
==========
Election eve update on close races, changed since 30 Oc
CA-47 now leaning D -
https://davemin.com/
NY-17 now learning R -
https://www.mondaireforcongress.com/
Starting tomorrow, updates on results rather than
predictions will be added to -
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-04
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Election eve update on close races, changed since 30 Oc
topic election
wordrate 0
words 34
epoch Lifetime
ID 957155586459050
impress 15
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/04/2024 17:56"
reach 14
title Election eve update on close races, changed since 30 Oc
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/957155586459050
==========
Their preferred outcome - nobody wins - and nobody can
agree on what to d
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/02/election-trump-harris-russia-china-iran/
The longer the uncertainty lasts, the better for America's
foes.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-02
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Their preferred outcome - nobody wins - and nobody can
topic election
wordrate 0
words 26
epoch Lifetime
ID 955669316607677
impress 5
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/02/2024 17:50"
reach 5
title Their preferred outcome - nobody wins - and nobody can agree on what to d
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/955669316607677
==========
Why not just auction off the presidency to the highest bidd
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/us/elections/elon-musk-super-pac.html
It would help with the Federal deficit.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-11-02
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Why not just auction off the presidency to the highest bidd
topic election
wordrate 0
words 19
epoch Lifetime
ID 955360583305217
impress 5
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "11/02/2024 07:17"
rcs 1
reach 5
reactions 1
title Why not just auction off the presidency to the highest bidd
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/955360583305217
==========
And then there's the enemy withi
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/us/elections/election-security-luzerne-county.html
Who knows what they will do.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-30
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title And then there's the enemy withi
topic election
wordrate 0
words 13
epoch Lifetime
ID 953397926834816
impress 5
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/30/2024 16:32"
reach 5
title And then there's the enemy withi
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/953397926834816
==========
True to form, the MAGA faithful accused the Democrats of
what the MAGA faithful were doing. Now their only hope
is a Trump pard
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/30/they-tried-prove-trumps-fraud-claims-they-failed-got-trouble/
But most of them violated state laws, which Trump can't
pardon. Unless he suspends the Constitution and rules
by decree. If he has a Make Aristocracy Great Again
majority in Congress though, he can try. That will be
a real test of character for members of Congress - they'll
have to choose between a place in the Hall of Fame or the
Hall of Infamy. We can readily guess how most
will choose.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-30
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title True to form, the MAGA faithful accused the Democrats of
topic election
wordrate 2
words 98
epoch Lifetime
ID 953384750169467
impress 3
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/30/2024 16:01"
reach 3
title True to form, the MAGA faithful accused the Democrats of what the MAGA faithful
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/953384750169467
==========
Tossups remaining in 2024 election, with links to
interesting dat
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2024-tossups.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-30
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Tossups remaining in 2024 election, with links to
topic election
wordrate 0
words 11
epoch Lifetime
ID 953364466838162
impress 3
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/30/2024 15:13"
reach 3
title Tossups remaining in 2024 election, with links to interesting dat
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/953364466838162
==========
Sometimes who you vote AGAINST is more important than who
you vote FO
https://au.news.yahoo.com/leonard-greene-don-t-blame-124500589.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-27
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Sometimes who you vote AGAINST is more important than who
topic election
wordrate 0
words 14
epoch Lifetime
ID 951194413721834
impress 8
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/27/2024 16:26"
reach 7
title Sometimes who you vote AGAINST is more important than who you vote FO
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/951194413721834
==========
Consequential elections? 2024 is not the first nor
the las
https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2024/10/25/leubsdorf-trump-harris-2024-election-history/stories/202410250041
The megadonor class will keep trying to maintain its wealth
and power,
and foreign interests will keep trying to help them.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-27
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Consequential elections? 2024 is not the first nor
topic election
wordrate 0
words 32
epoch Lifetime
ID 951192673722008
impress 7
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/27/2024 16:23"
reach 6
title Consequential elections? 2024 is not the first nor the las
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/951192673722008
==========
It's a song we've heard befor
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/voter-fraud-claims.html
and a song we'll hear again -
https://cagle.com/cartoonist/zyglis/2024/10/24/289580/election-fraud
The choir has been rehearsing for years!
#PS1election
=====
impact 2
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-27
ratio 4
react 1
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 1
title It's a song we've heard befor
topic election
wordrate 0
words 21
audclicks 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 951190650388877
impress 5
matchedlinkclicks 1
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/27/2024 16:18"
reach 4
title It's a song we've heard befor
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/951190650388877
==========
Foreign propagandists have been hard at wor
https://apnews.com/article/disinformation-election-interference-russia-china-2925ca62c1ba8c1893454ccb2f76785a
But probably we ain't seen nothing yet -
https://apnews.com/article/election-interference-trump-harris-russia-china-efff7f7fcbc71032b1152d011c953eba
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-17
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Foreign propagandists have been hard at wor
topic election
wordrate 0
words 16
epoch Lifetime
ID 943691424472133
impress 4
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/17/2024 15:24"
reach 3
title Foreign propagandists have been hard at wor
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/943691424472133
==========
More critical election races to conside
Senate seats that might be leaning Republican or likely
Republican -
FL https://www.debbieforflorida.com/ Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
MT https://jontester.com/ Jon Tester
TX https://colinallred.com/ Colin Allred
The pundits don't agree exactly - check them out at
https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election-predictions/
These candidates would certainly appreciate your support,
even though they've got an uphill climb.
On the upside, two of their opponents - FL Rick Scott and
TX Ted Cruz - are in perennial contention for the title of
senator most disliked by other senators of their own party.
And MT Tim Sheehy? He's a true Trumpist at heart, saying
whatever is best to look out for #1 -
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/06/tim-sheehy-autobiography-pentagon-vetting-navy-seal
But the Trumpists are confident their base will turn out
and vote without asking questions. If you want to give
them a run for their money, you'll need to pony up some
money of your own.
But for a safer bet, consider these candidates, some
of which have just been demoted from Lean Democratic to
Tossup, due to a tsunami of dark money flowing to their
Trumpist opponents -
AZ https://gallegoforarizona.com/ Ruben Gallego
MI https://elissaslotkin.org/ Elissa Slotkin
NV https://www.rosenfornevada.com/ Jacky Rosen
OH https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ Sherrod Brown
PA https://bobcasey.com/ Bob Casey
WI https://www.tammybaldwin.com/ Tammy Baldwin
Don't like tsunamis? Who's in your lifeboat?
https://endcitizensunited.org/candidates/
#PS1election
https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election-predictions/
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-16
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title More critical election races to conside
topic election
wordrate 1
words 172
epoch Lifetime
ID 943013917873217
impress 9
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/16/2024 22:13"
reach 9
title More critical election races to conside
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/943013917873217
==========
Most of us have very little to say about the presidential
electio
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
That's why it's important to focus on the races you CAN
hope to influence.
https://stateline.org/2024/09/23/the-deciders-the-issues-and-states-that-will-determine-who-wins-the-white-house
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-15
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Most of us have very little to say about the presidential
topic election
wordrate 0
words 27
epoch Lifetime
ID 941987491309193
impress 4
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/15/2024 21:13"
reach 4
title Most of us have very little to say about the presidential electio
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941987491309193
==========
Addicted to reading the pol
There's no point unless you plan to do something in
response.
https://secure.actblue.com/
In particular, the presidential race is likely to turn on
a gnat's eyelash -
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/politics/presidential-election-third-party-candidates.html
Third parties, in particular, might make the difference -
it happened before -
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
and it can happen again. If the election goes to the
House, Trump will not hesitate to make more Corrupt Bargain
history -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrupt_bargain
It sounds like he already made Corrupt Bargains with the
oil tycoons, RFK Jr, Musk, and probably more - but whether
he will keep them just adds to the suspense.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-15
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Addicted to reading the pol
topic election
wordrate 1
words 97
epoch Lifetime
ID 941783441329598
impress 3
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/15/2024 14:23"
reach 3
title Addicted to reading the pol
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941783441329598
==========
If you think the country is better off being run by
reaction
rich old white men, you know how to vote. They're
spending hundreds of millions to make sure.
If you don't think their way, then besides the tossups in
the previous post, here are more races where your support
might make a difference -
Governor tossup -
NH https://joycecraig.org/
Senate leaning Democratic -
AZ https://gallegoforarizona.com/
MI https://elissaslotkin.org/
NV https://www.rosenfornevada.com/
PA https://bobcasey.com/
WI https://www.tammybaldwin.com/
The pundits listed later agree on the races above.
For the following House races, each is considered a tossup
by two out the three of the pundits, and none consider
them likely Democratic or Republican -
CA-41 https://willrollinsforcongress.com/
AZ-1 https://www.amishforarizona.com/
CO-8 https://www.caraveoforcongress.com/
IA-3 https://lanonbaccam.com/
ME-2 https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/
NC-1 https://votedondavis.com/
NE-2 https://www.vargasfornebraska.com/
NY-17 https://www.mondaireforcongress.com/
NY-19 https://joshrileyforcongress.com/
PA-8 https://cartwrightcongress.com/
WA-3 https://marieforcongress.com/
The following are close too and might end up being
tossups -
CA-47 https://davemin.com/
AZ-6 https://www.engelforarizona.com/
IA-1 https://www.bohannanforcongress.com/
NY-4 https://lauragillen.com/
NY-22 https://www.mannionforny.com/
OH-9 https://marcykaptur.com/
OH-13 https://www.emiliasykesforcongress.com/
PA-7 https://wildforcongress.com/
PA-10 https://janellestelson.com/
VA-7 https://vindmanforcongress.com/
None of them will vote your way all the time, but
consider the alternative - their opponents will vote
their megadonors' way all the time.
If the choice seems overwhelming, consider
https://www.dscc.org/
https://dccc.org/
And for one-stop financial donations to any of the above -
https://secure.actblue.com/
Punditry sources -
https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/
https://www.270towin.com/
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-15
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title If you think the country is better off being run by
topic election
wordrate 1
words 156
epoch Lifetime
ID 941760587998550
impress 10
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/15/2024 13:36"
reach 5
title If you think the country is better off being run by reaction
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941760587998550
==========
The rural bias of the Constitution, as encapsulated in
the Electoral Colle
https://www.reduce-rural-bias.net/
guarantees that this presidential election
will be decided by a very few undecided
voters in a very few states that do not know
much about politics, economics, or the rest of the world.
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
Both campaigns are desperately trying to think of ways to
reach those voters, but from now on will probably expend
their greatest energy on getting out occasional voters in
every state with toss-up races.
What are the tossup races of national significance?
Any that affect
Congress -
Senate
OH https://www.sherrodbrown.com/
House
CA-13 https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/
CA-22 https://www.rudysalas.com/
CA-27 https://www.georgewhitesides.com/
CA-45 https://www.derektranforcongress.com/
AK https://marypeltola.com/
MI-7 https://www.hertelformichigan.com/
MI-8 https://kristenmcdonaldrivet.com/
OR-5 https://www.janellebynum.com/
If you want to make a difference, donate time or money to
any of these candidates.
These races are still called tossups by all of the
following -
https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/
https://www.270towin.com/
#PS1election
=====
comments 1
impact 37
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-15
ratio 7
react 3
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 1
title The rural bias of the Constitution, as encapsulated in
topic election
wordrate 1
words 123
audclicks 1
commentsimpress 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 941736461334296
impress 24
matchedlinkclicks 1
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/15/2024 12:53"
rcs 3
reach 21
reactions 1
sharesimpress 1
title The rural bias of the Constitution, as encapsulated in the Electoral Colle
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/941736461334296
==========
Trump owes a lot to the rural bias in the Constitution
that he wants to suspend - a holdover from the demands
of southern slaveowners that would rather have remained
slaves to King George than give up their own slav
https://www.reduce-rural-bias.net/
Trump wants a mandate!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4918724-donald-trump-mandate-presidential-race/
He'll certainly lose the popular vote, probably by even
more than in 2016 or 2020. He might just squeak by
in the Electoral College due to its rural bias and due
to voter suppression and winner-take-all, or he might be
able to get the election to the House where he's certain
to be elected by the Make Aristocracy Great Again faithful,
voting state by state - more rural bias.
But it appears that nobody will win clear control of
Congress - and the MAGA exremists will still control
the House by making non-negotiable extremist demands.
Sounds just like college campuses of the 1960's!
There's not much that most people can do about the
presidential election, but everybody can influence the
tossup races for the Senate and House. All it takes is
money - you get the government you're willing to pay for.
The MAGA megadonors like this system.
#PS1election
=====
impact 19
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-07
ratio 10
react 1
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
title Trump owes a lot to the rural bias in the Constitution
topic election
wordrate 1
words 193
epoch Lifetime
ID 934987622009180
impress 19
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/07/2024 17:09"
rcs 1
reach 10
sharesimpress 1
title Trump owes a lot to the rural bias in the Constitution that he wants to suspend
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/934987622009180
==========
Perhaps the biggest lie in the VP debate was the
implication that the VP is responsible for very much
or can change very much. Congress is supposed to
make the laws, but its usual paralysis means that the
president does more than he should by executive order.
The VP has no such power, and usually gets stuck with the
jobs that the president doesn't want, such as Covid for
Pence and attacking the roots of migration for Harris.
Although GOP like
pretend that Harris was the border czar who set policy, her
actual charge was to determine steps that would eliminate
illegal immigration at the source.
https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/kamala-harris-border-policy-rcna163317
That's a tough nut to crack because most of the illegal
immigants are fleeing for their lives from countries ruled
by corrupt violent strong men - just the sorts of leaders
Trump admires most. He promises to live up to their
example if he's re-elected.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-01
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Perhaps the biggest lie in the VP debate was the
topic election
wordrate 1
words 152
epoch Lifetime
ID 930419592465983
impress 6
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/01/2024 22:00"
reach 5
title Perhaps the biggest lie in the VP debate was the implication that the VP is
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/930419592465983
==========
That was the debate that wasn'
https://apnews.com/article/debate-walz-vance-misinformation-fact-check-a3f67b1fdef425038dfac9267861247c
It probably didn't change the minds of any remaining swing
voters in swing states. The hurricane catastrophe in
swing state NC
might have a more profound effect - changing the beliefs of
the victims about climate change or the federal government,
or keeping them too busy recovering to have time to vote.
In happier news, Jimmy Carter made it to 100. Possible
inferences - being a one-term president due to an election
loss is good for your health. Or that teaching Sunday
School is good for your health. Although Walz was an
elementary school teacher, Trump mainly teaches by example,
e.g. Trump U.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-10-01
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title That was the debate that wasn'
topic election
wordrate 1
words 110
epoch Lifetime
ID 930412049133404
impress 6
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "10/01/2024 21:47"
reach 5
title That was the debate that wasn'
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/930412049133404
==========
There's not much you can do about the presidential election
- it's up to a very few voters in a very few states -
that mostly don't follow politics and never studied economi
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
But more important to the Make-Aristocracy-Great-Again
megadonors is
Who's elected governor? - MAGA governors can veto
Democratic state legislation!
Who's elected senator? - MAGA senators can help a MAGA
president put more reactionary MAGA judges in the Federal
judiciary!
Who's elected to the House? - MAGA representative can shut
down the Federal government, much to the delight of their
megadonors who find that access to rural state legislators
is much more affordable.
Some up-in-the-air races in November - where your small
donation could make a difference for the whole country,
if not the world -
Governor tossup:
NH https://joycecraig.org/
Governor lean Democratic:
WA https://www.bobferguson.com/
NC https://www.joshstein.org/
Senate tossup:
OH https://www.sherrodbrown.com/
Senate lean Democratic:
AZ https://gallegoforarizona.com/
NV https://www.rosenfornevada.com/
WI https://www.tammybaldwin.com/
MI https://elissaslotkin.org/
PA https://bobcasey.com/
About 360 House seats are essentially uncontested. So
the megadonors are pouring money into the 75 seats that
might be
contested, and especially the 20 or so tossups.
CA House tossups:
CA-13 https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/
CA-22 https://www.rudysalas.com/
CA-27 https://www.georgewhitesides.com/
CA-41 https://willrollinsforcongress.com/
CA-45 https://www.derektranforcongress.com/
CA-47 https://davemin.com/
For more see the following:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/
https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/
House tossups:
AK
AZ-1
AZ-6
CO-8
ME-2
MI-7
MI-8
NC-1
NE-2
NM-2
NY-17
NY-19
OH-13
OR-5
PA-7
PA-8
WA-3
House lean Democratic:
CT-5
IN-1
IL-17
MN-2
NM-2
NY-4
NY-18
NY-22
OH-9
PA-17
TX-28
TX-34
VA-7
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-09-24
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title There's not much you can do about the presidential election
topic election
wordrate 1
words 210
epoch Lifetime
ID 924857503022192
impress 22
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "09/24/2024 20:07"
reach 7
title There's not much you can do about the presidential election - it's up to a very
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/924857503022192
==========
It doesn't take much change in turnout in the swing states
to change the presidential election outcom
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
Is the GOP in a panic? Too much happy talk about how Trump
was going to win by a landslide might have kept some of
their base at home - but it might have kept some of the
Democratic base at home too. Instead, the Democrats
seem to have
renewed energy -
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/27/polling-kamala-harris-trump-00171514
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-07-28
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title It doesn't take much change in turnout in the swing states
topic election
wordrate 0
words 70
epoch Lifetime
ID 884545173720092
impress 6
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/28/2024 00:01"
reach 5
title It doesn't take much change in turnout in the swing states to change the
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/884545173720092
==========
We'll see how tough on crime Kamala Harris is when she
debates Trump, but in the meantim
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/07/25/california-long-a-conservative-foil-is-a-likely-trump-target-with-kamala-harris-as-rival/
Stephens is correct that she might not be the best
candidate to sway the 100,000 swing voters in the swing
states that she needs to be elected president -
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/23/opinion/kamala-harris-democrats.html
But she might be the best candidate to energize the
Democratic
base in the rest of the country to elect a Democratic
Congress, which ultimately is more important.
It might be good to let the swing state delegates at the
Democratic convention nominate the vice presidential
candidate by ranked-choice voting, based on how well
the contenders attack the Trumpist agenda rather than
each other. One problem is that most of the obvious
candidates are governors or senators that Democrats need
to keep in office.
They all just need to keep reminding the voters that Harris
has spent more time prosecuting crimes than committing
them or inciting them -
https://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2024/07/23/kamala-harris-america-trump-president-election/ideas/connecting-california/
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-07-26
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title We'll see how tough on crime Kamala Harris is when she
topic election
wordrate 0
words 155
epoch Lifetime
ID 883549507152992
impress 7
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/26/2024 08:04"
reach 5
title We'll see how tough on crime Kamala Harris is when she debates Trump, but in
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/883549507152992
==========
The Federal Election Commission has been uselessly
partisanly deadlocked for years, so Trump's complaint is
only for propaganda purposes
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/23/politics/trump-campaign-fec-complaint-block-biden-harris-funds/index.html
After all, in HIS cases, Trump always helped the wheels
of justice turn as slowly as possible, if at all.
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-07-25
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title The Federal Election Commission has been uselessly
topic election
wordrate 0
words 40
epoch Lifetime
ID 883057527202190
impress 4
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/25/2024 12:58"
reach 4
title The Federal Election Commission has been uselessly partisanly deadlocked for
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/883057527202190
==========
Want to do something about Trump and Vance? Fickle fate
might deal them a narrow win or a narrow loss, but either
way only bad things will come out of Congress as long as
Putinist-Trumpist-Dixiecrat GOP controls it. Fortunately,
other Federal offices are elected by popular vote, rather
than by an electoral college or state legislatures, so
you CAN make a differen
The Senate is particularly critical since the Democrats
are defending far more seats the the GOP - just as in 2018.
Sabato identifies just two tossup states - MT and OH.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-senate/
270towin agrees -
https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/
MT - https://jontester.com/
OH - https://www.sherrodbrown.com/
And they agree on just two tossup governor races - NC
and NH
NC - https://www.joshstein.org/
NH - will not hold its primary until September
there are 3 Democratic candidates,
6 GOP, 2 other
As for the House, Sabato identifies
9 currently Democratic tossups including CA-47
and 9 currently GOP tossups including CA-13,22,27
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/
while 270towin identifies 25 tossups, including
CA-13,22,27,41,47
https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/
You can support any of these candidates individually at
their own websites or at https://secure.actblue.com/
Or you could let the party leaders make the support
allocations for you at
https://www.dscc.org/
https://dccc.org/
https://democraticgovernors.org/
https://dlcc.org/
And if you want to do something long term about minority
rule,
https://democraticredistricting.com/
Remember the GOP plan -
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/project-2025-is-increasingly-unpopular/ar-BB1quzko
And the Democratic plan - same as in 1896 and 1932 and
1964 -
There are two ideas of government. There are those who
believe that, if you will only legislate to make the
well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through
on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been
that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their
prosperity will find its way up through every class which
rests upon them.
Now go do something about it!
#PS1election
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-senate/
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-07-23
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Want to do something about Trump and Vance? Fickle fate
topic election
wordrate 0
words 273
epoch Lifetime
ID 881799517327991
impress 8
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/23/2024 13:16"
reach 7
title Want to do something about Trump and Vance? Fickle fate might deal them a
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/881799517327991
==========
Whatever you think of Biden's withdrawal, it has already
begun to exert a cost on America's world leadership, that
is going to make matters more difficult for whoever is
elected in November. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea
will all try to exploit a moment of weakne
https://apnews.com/article/biden-world-reaction-race-withdrawal-a627c5f773d5f440541bd299efe3dbc3
But the withdrawal has completely upended the Trump/Vance
campaign strategy, and all they have left is aimless
attacks on Harris, hoping she will be the candidate.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-harris-drops-out-920d7fe1c364e82290abeb9e0d1411c7
And they REALLY don't want to answer questions about age
and health any more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/22/trump-age-health/
So keeping the Trump/Vance campaign in suspense for another
month, as to who they are running against, seems like a
good strategy.
A good use of the next month would be to let all the
potential Biden
replacements make their cases before the convention by
campaigning hard for the tossup races that matter - for
Congress, governors, and state legislatures.
That will maximize the opportunity for Trump/Vance, not
knowing who the ultimate opponent will be, to say something
stupid that they will regret later. They will be under
intense pressure to say something - anything - outrageous
to regain the spotlight from the Democrats.
Then at the convention, let all the delegates select
the presidential
candidate by ranked-choice voting. Then, let all the
delegates from the swing states - GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, etc
- choose the vice-presidential candidate by ranked-choice
voting.
After all, no matter who runs, most of the Democratic
voters will still vote Democratic, and the Trump voters
will still vote Trump, and the election will still be
decided by probably less than 100,000 swing voters in
the swing states - who mostly don't follow politics and
tend to vote their pocketbooks - aggravated by a tsunami
of propaganda telling them that inflation is all Biden's
fault.
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
But after all the unexpected events of the last month,
who can say what unexpected event in the next three months
might change the minds of those swing voters? So it's a
waste of energy to worry too much about who's in the White
House. Congress with a reliable majority can control the
president better than the president can control Congress.
What matters - that we can affect - is who is in
Congress, governors' offices, and state legislatures.
As is traditional, the ruling class will attempt
to win by throwing immense sums of dark money at
Putinist-Trumpist-Dixiecrat GOP candidates to
broadcast their propaganda. Democrats probably can't
outraise them, but they do have to keep harping on the real
agenda of the GOP megadonors - tax cuts for megadonors,
benefit cuts for everybody else; deregulation for
megadonors, onerous restrictions on everybody else; union
busting, keeping illegal immigration dangerous and illegal
but possible,to have a cheap exploitable workforce, etc.
https://apnews.com/article/biden-drops-out-2024-election-ddffde72838370032bdcff946cfc2ce6
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-07-21
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title Whatever you think of Biden's withdrawal, it has already
topic election
wordrate 1
words 456
epoch Lifetime
ID 880832297424713
impress 47
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/21/2024 22:54"
reach 5
title Whatever you think of Biden's withdrawal, it has already begun to exert a cost
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/880832297424713
==========
If the Greens had voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in
2016, they would have won, instead of losing by 1000 and
78000 votes. If the Libertarians had voted for Trump in
2020, he would have won, instead of losing by 44000 votes.
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2021-close-elections.html
When the country is so closely divided, every swing voter
in every swing state counts. But only THOSE voters in
THOSE states.
Looks like the same story in 2024 - Biden will win the
popular vote handily, but Trump might prevail anyway,
depending on how those voters feel in October.
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/2020-election.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/11/election-2024-2016-biden-trump-clinton/
#PS1election
=====
impact 10
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-07-12
ratio 4
react 1
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 1
title If the Greens had voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in
topic election
wordrate 0
words 95
audclicks 1
epoch Lifetime
ID 875099541331322
impress 4
matchedlinkclicks 1
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "07/12/2024 12:35"
reach 4
title If the Greens had voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016, they would have
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/875099541331322
==========
A night to mis-remembe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check
https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-misinformation-election-debate-trump-biden-577507522762aa10f6ee5be3a0ced2bb
But not too many minds were changed, except apparently some
Democratic megadonors. GOP megadonors were probably
pleased - Trump can really hog the spotlight while their
legislators quietly carry out their actual agenda in a
GOP Congress - less taxes for the rich, less benefits for
the masses.
So the name of the game at this point is to quit worrying
about the presidential election - it will be decided by a
few voters in a few states, depending on whatever random
events catch their attention in October. Apply your
time, energy, and money to winnable elections for Congress,
state legislatures, and governors.
#PS1election
=====
impact 22
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-06-28
ratio 4
react 2
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 2
title A night to mis-remembe
topic election
wordrate 0
words 108
audclicks 2
epoch Lifetime
ID 866010745573535
impress 10
matchedotherclicks 2
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "06/28/2024 07:33"
reach 8
title A night to mis-remembe
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/866010745573535
==========
What's the best way for Biden to address Trumpi
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/19/biden-lincoln-house-divided-lessons/
Does it matter? The presidential election is close
enough that it will be decided by a relatively few
undecided, in a relatively few states, who don't follow
politics much, but don't like inflation.
They hear propagandists talking about how bad the economy
is often enough to believe it. If Trump is re-elected,
the real victory will belong to the right-wing propaganda
machine led by Fox, Newsmax, OAN, with all their foreign
collaborators on sociai media.
The reality, of course, is that the American recovery
from the covid disruption is the envy of the rest of the
world, which has had to deal with far worse inflation and
shortages, and far worse unemployment.
And most people seem to have forgotten how bad things got
as the 2008-9 recession ended the Bush era. And has
anybody noticed that gasoline prices are going down
at the beginning of summer, just before the election?
Whatever the reasons for that, there's relatively little
that the US government can do to affect the world oil
price - more than anybody else, that's up to MBS deciding
to increase or decrease Saudi output.
Still, those voters want a change, and change they'll get
if they elect Trump and a Trumpist Congress. And they'll
be delighted by the change if they like to cut taxes and
regulation for the rich, cut benefits for the poor, bust
unions, exploit illegal immigrant labor, and generally
undeal everything since the New Deal. 90 years ago,
discontented voters in Germany and Italy made the same
choice and got the same kinds of results - and then
much worse.
Now we have climate change and consequent global violent
instability as well. But you don't have to worry about
that if you're too old to see how it ends, or if you're
rich enough that you can relocate wherever and whenever
you like.
But the presidential election is only a third of the
puzzle. It doesn't matter if Trump wins if Trumpists
lose Congress. And that's something that voters in
every state have a stake in and can affect.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/21/trump-biden-2024-congress-election-voting/
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2024-06-20
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
title What's the best way for Biden to address Trumpi
topic election
wordrate 0
words 355
epoch Lifetime
ID 860563119451631
impress 8
pageid 100064938510484
pagename "Political scrapbook"
posted "06/20/2024 00:01"
reach 5
title What's the best way for Biden to address Trumpi
type Links
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/860563119451631
==========
That explains a l
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/politics/rfk-jr-parastic-worm-brain/index.html
#PS1election
=====
impact 0
impactrate 0
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title That explains a l
topic election
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==========
You don't know about the election until you've heard from
Dave Bar
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/16/election-postcards-2024/
#PS1election
=====
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posted 2024-04-16
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title You don't know about the election until you've heard from
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posted "04/16/2024 18:22"
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title You don't know about the election until you've heard from Dave Bar
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URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/819843133523630